Myth Busted: Hypersonic Missiles Make Great Bunker Busters

Emergency workers extinguish fire in vehicles at the site of a Russian missile strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 9, 2023. Gleb Garanich/Reuters

Commentary

Reports have been circulating on Twitter and some news services that Russia’s new “super weapon” has destroyed an alleged shadow NATO bunker in Lviv, Ukraine, buried 300 to 400 feet underground, killing “dozens” of people.

An analysis of the claim, such as that provided by Newsweek, shows the claim to be false. Still, podcasts and YouTube channels collectively boasting millions of subscribers have continued to report on the story as if it’s credible or at least might be credible. That this is the case is understandable as many rightfully don’t trust so-called mainstream fact-checkers such as Snopes that have been wrong on such topics as COVID-19 vaccine safety, vaccine effectiveness, masking, lockdowns, natural immunity, election integrity, the Hunter Biden laptop, Russian collusion, etc., etc.

However, beyond the kind of analysis already cited, there’s a prima facie case for the falseness of the claim that has largely been overlooked. That being that Russia’s so-called super weapon, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile, isn’t capable of destroying a bunker 400 or even 300 feet beneath the ground.

Certainly, it’s possible that shadow NATO bunkers, along with NATO special forces, are operating in Ukraine. And between March 8 and 9, the Kh-47M2 was used to successfully strike and destroy several high-value targets in Ukraine. It’s also true that the Kh-47M2, with a maximum claimed speed of between Mach 10 and Mach 12, is a very destructive weapon. And we have all heard that speed kills.

Consequently, it’s understandable that with all the hype surrounding hypersonic missiles, claims of a scary fast Mach 12 hypersonic missile destroying an underground bunker might be viewed with credulity. After all, if we accept the assumption (a big if) that a Kinzhal missile did strike the ground at Mach 12 directly over the deeply buried bunker, it would release around 16,000 megajoules of energy in a matter of microseconds: about 50 percent more energy than that of a 747 with near-empty fuel tanks striking the ground at 600 miles per hour. Or comparable to the kinetic energy of five full broadsides from an Iowa class battleship’s nine guns firing 2,700-pound projectiles at Mach 2.25.

That’s an insane amount of destructive energy. However, being an effective bunker buster is about more than impact energy and velocity. Other factors include the structural strength of the penetrator, penetration depth prior to the release of energy, ground coupling, mass, density, cross-sectional density, etc. And while the Kinzhal missile is very fast, it doesn’t get high marks in all the other factors that make for being an effective bunker buster. And by looking at some other powerful weapons, we can see just how lacking the Kinzhal is when it comes to underground bunker busting.

First up for comparison is the U.S. Air Force’s Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb, which was erroneously presented by much of the media and even the Department of Defense as being a bunker-buster, tunnel-destroying weapon when it was used in Afghanistan in 2017. The 21,700-pound MOAB, affectionately known as the mother of all bombs, generates a destructive blast well over double that of the Kinzhal. Yet, analysis shows it’s a poor bunker buster, with limited ability to destroy tunnels.

On the other end of the scale is the world’s most powerful bunker buster, the Air Force’s 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). Unlike, the MOAB, whose bomb casing is very thin and made of aluminum, the MOP’s casing is made of thick, super-strong steel that remains intact even after striking the ground at supersonic speeds and burrowing through hundreds of feet of earth and dozens of feet of concrete prior to detonating. Consequently, unlike the Kinzhal, whose relatively flimsy air frame disintegrates immediately upon hitting the ground, releasing both its kinetic and explosive warhead energy in a matter of microseconds, the MOP is designed to release all of its explosive energy after burrowing down close to the bunker or actually smashing through the bunker’s roof.

So, whereas a weapon like the MOP penetrates deep into the earth before releasing its energy, the Kinzhal does not. Bottom line, while the Kinzhal can destroy or heavily damage most surface structures, its ability to damage any bunker quickly diminishes as the depth of the bunker increases.

Now back to the unlikely assumption that a Kinzhal missile struck the ground at Mach 12, immediately over the posited buried bunker. That assumption is almost certainly untrue as the quoted maximum speeds for hypersonic missiles invariably occur at high altitudes where the air is thin. When the hypersonic missile descends toward its intended target, the air density increases, creating more drag and greatly reducing speed. Also, at speeds greater than Mach 5, a plasma charge builds up around a missile that blocks out radio signals, including GPS and GLONASS. So, unless Russia has solved this very difficult technical issue, it’s possible that the impact speed was more along the lines of Mach 4. This is still very fast and very difficult to intercept, but is a far cry from having a precision-guided missile with an impact velocity of Mach 12.

Not only is it impossible for the Kinzhal to destroy a deeply buried bunker, it’s also quite possible that its impact velocity will not even be hypersonic, but “only” high supersonic.

So, myth double busted.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.