Russia’s foreign ministry recently announced that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Russia in the spring and possibly in February, but the Chinese side has not confirmed.
On Dec. 30 last year, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xi held a video call, Putin extended an invitation to Xi, and Russian media reported on it. But Chinese state-run media deliberately concealed the invitation in their coverage of the meeting.
The Chinese media’s response reflects Xi’s hesitation. He does not want to be tied to Putin, who could lose the war with Ukraine. If Russia becomes weak economically and militarily, Xi is worried that China would lose a powerful ally and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be even more isolated in the international community. This is why Xi did not immediately agree to Putin’s invitation. Furthermore, Xi may have wanted to wait and see how the Russia-Ukraine war would progress. If Russia wins, Xi would go to Russia to show his determination to reshape the international order; but if Russia loses, Xi does not want Putin to drag him down, just as he has not provided concrete military aid to Russia after repeated warnings from the United States.
Now, it seems that Xi has already made up his mind to visit Russia. This judgment is based on two reasons.
First, Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Working Committee, will visit Russia at the beginning of February. Usually, a foreign minister-level visit precedes an exchange of visits between the two heads of state, setting the tone for what the leaders will talk about and what results they may achieve.
The second reason is related to the latest developments in the Taiwan Strait—U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will be visiting Taiwan later this year. There’s not much the CCP can do about McCarthy’s trip. When former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, the CCP issued war threats through civilian channels and provocative actions through semi-official channels (such as retired Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin), including the possibility of Chinese military aircraft accompanying Pelosi’s plane. Instead, the CCP waited until Pelosi left Taiwan and then staged a military drill.
So Xi’s visit to Russia would show the United States and the West that Sino-Russia ties are stronger than ever.
How far can Sino-Russian cooperation go? A brief history of Xi’s childhood might give us a clue.
Xi Jinping’s father, former Vice Premier Xi Zhongxun, was persecuted by Mao Zedong during the Cultural Revolution, and Xi Jinping himself was implicated in several detentions and investigations in Beijing. He later left Beijing to save his own life, and followed other young people to the countryside in Yan'an during the “Down to the Countryside Movement” launched by Mao. The campaign urged educated young people to move to the rural areas to learn the lifestyle of the peasants. Unable to endure the poverty and hardship in the countryside, Xi Jinping fled back to Beijing. Gradually he became one of the most hard-working communist youths.
Given the harsh treatment that Xi’s family endured, most people would assume that Xi abhors Mao and the CCP. On the contrary, Xi worships Mao, and many of his policies lead China back to the Cultural Revolution. Why?
Dr. Enrico Suardi, an assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at Georgetown University, said at The Institute of World Politics: “Xi Jinping and his family were, without questions, the victims of the aggression of the communist authorities. His psychological defense was to identify with the aggressor. ... And so I use the concept of post-traumatic growth here. Spiritual development, finding new possibilities in life, active problem solving, finding meaning and purpose.”
Xi’s childhood experience shows that when he finds his opponents too powerful for him to overcome, he strives to become one of them. While this may not be the case in competition with democracies, it does show a high likelihood that he may be open to compromise. Xi’s abrupt ending of his zero-COVID policy, and the abandonment of his signature economic policies and anti-corruption efforts suggest the possibility of a sudden shift in his stance due to tremendous pressure.
If we believe that this is a trait of Xi’s spiritual world, then what we need to do is not to guide him, but to put more pressure on him in key areas, including the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres.
