As I peer in my crystal glass to puzzle out where the wine world is going next, I see one constant: climate change. It challenged winemakers in 2023, the hottest year in history, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Wildfires in Greece; massive heat and drought in Spain; and floods, frost, and hail elsewhere in Europe all took their toll last year, resulting in one of the smallest harvests ever. But Napa, subject to wildfires and heat waves in the recent past, escaped with one of the best vintages ever. You could argue that global warming has been good for the UK, as well as fledgling vineyard efforts in Norway and Sweden—places where, in the past, it would have been too cold and rainy to ripen grapes sufficiently. All of this makes its impact very hard to predict for the coming year.
- You’ll be drinking more sauvignon blanc. Taste preferences are shifting: More than half the wine consumed globally, as of 2021, was either white or rosé. US drinkers are leading the way with whites, according to data from the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV). Now, top regions known for reds, such as Italy’s Mt. Etna and the Rhône Valley, are putting more emphasis on their less well-known whites.
Oregon is now in the game, with top names such as Andrew Rich and Patricia Green. And although Chile’s boom in the grape started two decades ago—the country is the third-largest producer of the white wine in the world, behind France (first) and New Zealand—the latest examples from ambitious wineries such as Laberinto, Tabali and Viña Leyda are better than ever.
- Sparkling wine will pop even further. The French drank less Champagne last year, because of inflation. But they still like fizz, and everyone else is in love with wine with bubbles, too. Drinks industry analyst IWSR found the number of Americans who drink sparkling wine grew 30 percent from 2019 to 2022. About 25 percent choose bubbles at least twice a week.
The category will get a further boost from a few new American sparkling cuvées. Last year I tasted about two dozen new ones from California, some from unusual grapes like picpoul blanc, a lesser-known variety originating from France’s Rhône Valley. The wines are tart and lemony. (The name translates as “lip stinger.”) And in Oregon, the number of winemakers producing at least one bubbly has quadrupled since 2018.
- Expect more high-quality no- and low-alcohol wine, even in fancy restaurants. Health concerns about wine was a big topic in 2023. A July Gallup poll discovered that more than 50 percent of Americans 18 to 34 believe even moderate drinking is bad for your health. The latest Wine Opinions survey found nearly half of the 21- to 39-year-olds polled were interested or planned to participate in Dry January or Sober October.
- We’ll ponder the question: What is wine? We’ve seen surprising new wine regions (Sweden, Vermont), new wine styles (orange, pét-nat, piquette) and new grapes with unfamiliar names such as Goruli Mtsvane (pronounced Go-roo-lee Mah-ts-vah-nay) which is a white variety from the Republic of Georgia. Now winemakers are pushing the boundaries of what a wine is—and, in the process, finding a way to survive the extreme weather of climate change.
Others are inspired by ancestral traditions. Vermont’s Kalche Wine Co. has blended grape skins, water, and cranberries to make a piquette wine called Vib-Ur-Num.
- Rewards programs for wine will mature. One 2024 trend on London-based importer and distributor Bibendum Wine’s annual list is that more wineries and retailers will start offering unique perks for loyal customers based on how much they spend on wine.
- AI will shape the wines you drink and how you taste it. The buzzword of the year is AI, and it’s revolutionizing everything from the vineyard to the glass. Wineries have used artificial intelligence for years, especially when it comes to vineyard management—sensors gather real-time information on everything from light intensity to soil temperature. Robots are mowing, spraying, even ferrying pickers’ grapes to the winery.
