They fell like fiery rain from the heavens for all of 15 sublime minutes after they arrived on the coattails of a comet and swarmed the Earth, numbering in the tens of thousands. In November 1966, the now-famed Leonid meteor shower displayed its awesome capacity to dazzle onlookers with its recurring meteor storms every 33 years.
This November, the Leonids won’t be one of these periodic big storms, but they’ll return as they annually do and radiate from constellation Leo the Lion. Unless history has a change of heart, the lion will offer a whimper, not a roar.
There hangs a paradox of how meteors came to be so unpredictably punctual. They always show up for the party, but their number is another story.
The last serious Leonid meteor storm was in 1999—one 33-year cycle after the prior storm. Scientists noted Comet 55P/Temple-Tuttle had visited the year earlier on both occasions, setting the stage for a meteor storm. Comets leave great streams of debris in their wake when they fly near the sun, as 55P/Temple-Tuttle did in 1965 and 1998. Whenever Earth passes through that debris, we see fiery showers coming down. Cosmic dust hits our atmosphere and burns up. The resulting streaks of fire in the sky are called meteors.
If things go the way scientists say they will, the next big Leonid storm won’t be until 2032, after Comet 55P/Temple-Tuttle returns. But you never know. The Leonids have defied experts in the past.
Meteor experts say not to look to the radiant, nor within constellation Leo, to find meteors. Instead, try lying back in a lawn chair and take in as much sky as possible, as meteors radiate outward from Leo and streak all across the sky. If you look at Leo, they’ll shoot straight toward you and be invisible.
Don’t forget to factor in moonlight when watching meteors. Since the full moon falls on Nov. 15, a waning gibbous moon will drown out some of the Leonids’ drama on Nov. 18.
While orbiting the sun, Earth strikes a patch of comet dust every November that causes meteors. Our planet has done so for eons. In November 1833, observers first saw a storm of 100,000 meteors falling per hour. Witnesses had a strong impression of Earth traveling through space, as though the planet was fording a great cosmic stream. The sight made such an impression that scientists have kept an eye out for the Leonids ever since.
In 1865, astronomers first noted Comet 55P/Temple-Tuttle and determined it was the Leonids’ parent object. Calculations found that it orbited the sun once every 33 years. Each time it returned and neared the sun, it shed fresh matter, creating meteor outbursts. With the comet at hand that year, they expected an imminent storm.
Yet, the great display they anticipated in 1866 never materialized. It was a fiasco in the eyes of the public; considered one of the biggest blows to the field of astronomy at the time. That’s just how meteors go. They defy predictions.
On average, you can expect 10 to 15 meteors per hour when the Leonids peak every November. This year will be average, astronomers say, while moonlight will wash out some of the spectacle. Then again, you could take your chances and—who knows?—maybe get lucky.
