While the presidential contest is consuming much of political debate in America, Congress is facing the possibility of a major power shift. The Senate races may prove to be particularly consequential for the country’s future.
There are 35 Senate seats up for election on Nov. 3, with at least 12 likely to flip or close enough to keep an eye on. If the election swings hard one way or the other, it could make for a tectonic shift in the power balance for the next six years and beyond.
Senators not only vote on legislation, but also on presidential appointments, including federal judges and Supreme Court justices. While major legislation needs 60 votes to clear a Senate filibuster, even a simple majority suffices to pass budget measures and approve appointments.
With the GOP holding a narrow majority, President Donald Trump was able to get not only his signature tax cuts bill in 2017, but also more than 200 judges and two Supreme Court justices, shaping the judiciary for decades to come.
Arizona: McSally Versus Kelly
In Arizona, Republican Martha McSally is defending the seat she was appointed to after the death of Sen. John McCain in 2018. Her challenger is former astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain Mark Kelly. McSally has consistently trailed Kelly in polls, but Trump carried Arizona in 2016. If he manages to repeat the success, it could push McSally over the finish line. Also, Kelly has campaigned heavily on gun control, which seems to have dropped in popularity this year, possibly due to an increase in violent crime and rioting in some areas across the country.South Carolina: Graham Versus Harrison
In South Carolina, Republican Lindsey Graham is defending his seat against Jaime Harrison, associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee. While recent polls showed the candidates tied, Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2016, which may give Graham a boost. Trump has endorsed him.Minnesota: Smith Versus Lewis
In Minnesota, Democrat Tina Smith is defending the seat she was appointed to in 2018 upon the resignation of Sen. Al Franken. A former Planned Parenthood executive, Smith also previously served as the state’s lieutenant governor. Her opponent is former radio host Jason Lewis, who served one term (2017–2018) as a congressman for Minnesota’s 2nd District. He’s closely aligned with Trump’s agenda and has been endorsed by the president.Colorado: Gardner Versus Hickenlooper
In Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner faces former governor John Hickenlooper. Trump lost Colorado by less than 3 points in 2016 and Gardner has his endorsement. Previously, the polls favored Hickenlooper, but the latest results give a slight edge to Gardner.Georgia: Perdue Versus Ossoff
In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads in polls by a small margin against Democrat Jon Ossoff, a former investigative journalist. Perdue is a former executive at a number of major corporations. He’s the cousin of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who formerly served as Georgia’s governor.Michigan: Peters Versus James
In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters is defending his seat against Republican John James. Peters, a former Michigan representative in Congress, has a narrow poll lead against James, a former Army attack helicopter pilot.Iowa: Ernst Versus Greenfield
In Iowa, Republican incumbent Joni Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are locked in a neck-and-neck race, polls indicate. Ernst, a former Army National Guard lieutenant colonel, served in the Iowa state Senate before winning her seat in Congress in 2014.New Hampshire: Shaheen Versus Messner
In New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen faces a challenge from Republican Corky Messner.Messner, the head of his corporate law firm, poured millions of his own money into his campaign, which has gained some steam with Trump’s endorsement.
New Mexico: Luján Versus Ronchetti
In New Mexico, Democrat Ben Ray Luján is running against Republican Mark Ronchetti for a Senate seat vacated by retiring Democrat incumbent Tom Udall. Luján, who represents the state’s 3rd District, has had a solid polling lead (pdf), but the gap appears to have been closing.Alabama: Jones Versus Tuberville
In Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones faces a challenge from Republican Tommy Tuberville. A former college football coach, Tuberville in the primaries beat former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and, with Trump’s endorsement, has been steamrolling Jones in polls.Maine: Collins Versus Gideon
In Maine, Republican Susan Collins defends her seat against Democrat Sara Gideon. Maine went narrowly for Clinton in 2016—by less than 3 points. Collins seems to have tried to appeal to left-leaning voters rather than her Republican base. She’s the Republican senator least likely to vote for Trump’s agenda and most likely to work with Democrats, according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump didn’t endorse her.Alaska: Sullivan Versus Gross
In Alaska, incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan faces a challenge from Al Gross, an independent running on the Democrat ticket. Gross, an orthopedician and political newcomer, has been rising in polls, partly perhaps due to solid fundraising and a partially self-funded campaign (pdf, pdf).Trump carried Alaska by more than 15 points in 2016. He’s endorsed Sullivan, a Marine Corps Reserve colonel and former Alaska attorney general.