Once the most viewed, non-sports TV show of any year, the ratings for the Oscars (presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences [AMPAS]) are now in the tank. Peaking in 1998 with over 57 million watchers, the decline was gradual, but in the last five years it has been sharp—from the low 30 millions in 2017 to the low 20 millions in 2020 to just over 10 million in 2021.
Some say this is due to the oversaturation of awards shows in general (which is true), but it’s mostly because of the political soap boxing of recent hosts (Jimmy Kimmel, in particular), and the winners who use their 30-second acceptance speeches to insult half of the people watching the show.
For the first time since the abysmal pairing of James Franco and Anne Hathaway in 2011, AMPAS is using multiple hosts this year. Counting heavily on the talents of actresses Regina King, Amy Schumer, and Wanda Sykes to lift the ratings out of cellar, AMPAS is hoping against hope these three outspoken ladies and their writers can avoid bringing up touchy and divisive subject matter.
While over half of this year’s nominees for Best Picture are less artsy than the past few years, not a single one of them has a snowball’s chance of winning the night’s top prize. Still trying to crawl out of the metaphoric crater caused by COVID-19, only one (“Dune”) did well at the box office, yet just a tad (27 percent) of its total haul was domestic. In 2021, more people streamed first-run movies at home rather than went to theaters, yet—to their immense credit—the chains and independent exhibitors are doing their level-best to get people back into the seats.
The principal reason the Academy raised the number of nominated titles in 2009 from five to ten was to attract more mainstream viewers who complained (with some legitimacy) that the prestige movies were too depressing and high-brow. If nothing, this year’s titles do offer up some variety. There’s a noir thriller (“Nightmare Alley”), a broad satire (“Don’t Look Up”), a sci-fi epic (“Dune”), an Asian think piece (“Drive My Car”), European unrest (“Belfast”), a coming-of-age romance (“Licorice Pizza”), a period Western (“The Power of the Dog”), a retread musical (“West Side Story”), a biographical sports drama (“King Richard”), and finally, family uplift (“CODA”).
Best Actor in a Lead Role
The Nominees: Andrew Garfield in “tick, tick...BOOM!,” Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog,” Javier Bardem in “Being the Ricardos,” Will Smith in “King Richard,” and Denzel Washington in “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”
MIA: Clifton Collins, Jr. in “Jockey,” Bradley Cooper in “Nightmare Alley.”
The Skinny: Despite receiving his 10th lifetime nomination, Washington doesn’t have a prayer and neither does the woefully miscast Bardem who was over 15 years older at the time of shooting than the man he was playing. Garfield has closed the gap somewhat since the nominations were announced and he could be a spoiler, but it’s not likely.
Best Actress in a Lead Role
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter,” Penélope Cruz in “Parallel Mothers,” Nicole Kidman in “Being the Ricardos,” and Kristen Stewart in “Spencer.”MIA: Alana Haim in “Licorice Pizza.”
The Skinny: At various points since September, every nominee in this category has been hailed as the “frontrunner,” so nobody should be surprised when the winner is announced. Cruz, Colman, and Stewart have the misfortune of starring in movies few people saw but most critics liked. Chastain put on an acting clinic while buried underneath pounds of make-up but the movie itself didn’t really catch fire—but neither did Kidman’s. Neither was nominated for the BAFTA.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Ciarán Hinds in “Belfast,” Troy Kotsur in “CODA,” Jesse Plemons in “The Power of the Dog,” J.K. Simmons in “Being the Ricardos,” and Kodi Smit-McPhee in “The Power of the Dog.”MIA: Bradley Cooper in “Licorice Pizza.”
The Skinny: With the exception of the long-shot and past winner Simmons, all men in this category are first-time nominees. Deaf actor and SAG winner Kotsur appeared in a lightweight movie which thoroughly tanked at the box office. The surprise nominee here is Plemons, which even big fans of his film didn’t see coming.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley in “The Lost Daughter,” Ariana DeBose in “West Side Story,” Judi Dench in “Belfast,” Kirsten Dunst in “The Power of the Dog,” and Aunjanue Ellis in “King Richard.”MIA: Ruth Negga in “Passing.”
The Skinny: Always it’s the most volatile category in any year, and past winners have either gone on to bigger and better things while others slip into obscurity. Far back in the pack are Buckley and Dench and just slightly ahead of them is Ellis who, despite winning the NBR, probably won’t pull off a win.
Best Director
The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh for “Belfast,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car,” Paul Thomas Anderson for “Licorice Pizza,” Jane Campion for “The Power of the Dog,” and Steven Spielberg for “West Side Story.”MIA: Denis Villeneuve for “Dune,” and Rebecca Hall for “Passing.”
The Skinny: One of the strongest best director line-ups in years, it will also be the most non-competitive race of the night. Hamaguchi’s film will win Best International Feature and maybe adapted screenplay. Anderson (or maybe Branagh) will win Best Original Screenplay. Spielberg will leave empty handed.
Best Picture
The Nominees: “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “Licorice Pizza,” “King Richard,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “West Side Story.”MIA: “Passing.”
The Skinny: As it has been since 2009 when the Academy doubled the number of nominees from five to ten, the race never includes more than two or three serious contenders. Of this year’s batch, half of them (“Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “West Side Story,” “King Richard,” “CODA”) don’t even deserve nods.
The Bottom Line: “Nightmare Alley” is excellent but is too dark. “Licorice Pizza” is even better but it’s too quirky. “Drive My Car” will win Best International Feature. “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog” are both exactly the type of film the Academy adores: well told, impeccably framed, sweeping epics with poetic endings. The smart money is leaning towards “Dog” but never discount the luck ‘o’ the Irish.
