The travel industry is expecting a big year in 2024—maybe too big. Most of the signs are good, but the industry’s expansion plans may be overestimating just how good.
Whatever else happens, 2024 is a year when you'll hear “artificial intelligence” or “AI” practically everywhere. As with any big new development, you sometimes have a tough time separating the real stuff from the hype, and AI is no exception. Still, there’s a lot of real stuff there. And although the industry bleats about how AI will help you plan better, what it’s really doing is trying to manipulate you better. You won’t have much choice about using it; it’s built into search engines and into search patterns. Don’t be surprised at anything you see—AI can generate great scenes and words out of nothing. Just make sure to keep your objectives fully in mind and resist distractions that you see offered.
The biggest stories for U.S. domestic airlines are about potential mergers. JetBlue with Spirit is already in the hands of the government reviewers, and a decision should come early in the year. So far, the government hasn’t announced a response to the Alaska-Hawaiian merger, but you'll see it soon. My take strays from the path that many of my consumer advocate colleagues have taken: I don’t see either merger as bad for consumers. The JetBlue-Spirit deal is one I don’t understand at all, but to me the Alaska-Hawaiian merger will create an airline a bit more able to compete with the big four—and that’s good.
International airlines are betting big that travel to Europe will be big. They’ve announced lots of new nonstop routes, they’ve scrambled for enough wide-body planes to cover the longer routes, and they expect to use long-range A320s and 321s for many shorter trips. Low-fare Norse Atlantic will be flying 14 different nonstop transatlantic routes this summer, including six different routes from London/Gatwick (Boston, Ft. Lauderdale, Los Angeles, New York/JFK, Orlando, San Francisco, Washington/Dulles), five routes from New York/JFK (Berlin, London/Gatwick, Oslo, Paris Rome), and from Oslo (Ft. Lauderdale, Los Angeles, New York/JFK, plus a few others. Several smaller European low-fare lines will also fly to the U.S., including Italian newcomer Neos (Palermo-New York) and French Bee (Paris-Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco). And the legacy lines are adding lots of secondary European gateways—a big advantage any time you can avoid connecting through a mega-hub in Europe or the U.S. If demand weakens even a little, look for flash sales.
On consumer protections, my crystal ball remains stubbornly low-def. That FAA Reauthorization bill, with consumer benefits in the Senate version and damage in the House, has been kicked down the road, with temporary reauthorizations to keep the FAA going, so we still have no idea whether we'll gain new protections or lose full-fare advertising. Meanwhile, you can expect some sort of ruling from the Department of Transportation on airline family seating and maybe refunds.
The move to quash mandatory hotel “resort” and similar gouge fees seems to be gaining steam, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot more full-fare posting requirements. But that’s it—I’ve seen no momentum for any federal or local protections for hotel guests, cruising consumers, or travelers who rent cars.
The big railroad story in 2023 was the opening of the Brightline extension from West Palm Beach to Orlando. Don’t expect anything similar in 2024. Yes, Florida’s Tri-Rail will start using the new Miami downtown Brightline terminal for some of its trains, and Amtrak may even head there. Otherwise, Amtrak’s outlook remains full of promises and federal funds but short of anything you can actually ride. At best, you‘ll see some new routes in the New Orleans area—probably once daily into Mississippi and Alabama and maybe even a few times daily to Baton Rouge. Also in 2024: opening the long-overdue CalTrain electrification. Meanwhile, China will probably add another few thousand miles of high-speed line. Whatever happens, I’ll be here to take a look at it.
Happy New Year.
