Every December, as we look back and add up what happened in the past 12 months, we can easily tally a whole bunch of actions and developments that took place. What’s tougher—but more important—is what happened that will stick around for a while and influence your future travel experience. As I noted last year, the current buzzword is “transformative,” and transformative events are often relatively rare. Here’s my take on what happened in 2023 that will inform your travels next year and beyond.
Travel Boom
The leisure travel rebound of 2022 continued and looks to be the new normal, not transformative. The business travel bust, on the other hand, seems stuck at something around 20 percent to 25 percent below long-term pre-Covid trends, and that might be transformative.Airline
“Lounge luster lost” is likely to be the watchword for air travel in 2023. With premium credit cards punching out zillions of new memberships, what were once highly desirable oases of peace and quiet in an otherwise hostile environment have turned into yet another place to line up for entry so you can try to find a seat. Lounge programs still aren’t worthless, and many locations can still satisfy traditional expectations. But overall, a lot of travelers who paid a lot for lounge membership are not happy with how often they don’t receive full value. I see this problem as sticking and not changing much anytime soon. In a related development, and as predicted, the 2022 nosedive in frequent-flyer programs stuck, with ongoing mileage and status devaluations.On another front, recent startup airlines—Avelo and Breeze—seem to be able to stick, but Avelo maybe fared a little better. Its key hub at New Haven has become an unexpected winner, likely to stick, and it keeps on apace at Burbank and other early hubs. Breeze, meanwhile, seems not to have found a comparable welcoming niche, and the jury remains out. And the fates of both big airline mergers of 2023 remains in the hands of antitrust review—the outcome of which I’m not even thinking about trying to predict—would likely not be transformative, anyhow.
Hotels
The most important hotel development in 2023 was probably Choice Hotels’ aggressive acquisition push. Following its 2023 acquisition of Radisson, in 2023 Choice made a hostile grab for Wyndham. I have no idea whether this will survive antitrust review—or if it will even get such review.Rail
After the four blockbuster urban rail developments in 2022 and early 2023—Washington Metro to Dulles Airport, London’s Crossrail (or Elizabeth Line), Long Island Rail Road into Grand Central, and San Francisco’s Central Subway, the rest of 2023 was a quiet year for railroads. The most important development was Brightline’s opening from Palm Beach to Orlando, and that will almost certainly stick. Amtrak also announced some big plans, but nothing new really happened.In 2023, Europe saw expansion of the long-awaited open access rail services. Italian trains now run in France, French trains run in Spain, and private trains operate in several countries. European policy has long favored—indeed, mandated—open access, and the services are now well entrenched and will surely stick.
Car Rentals
I remain puzzled that nothing much happened to car rentals in 2023. The country is clearly heading toward electric vehicles—maybe even flying cars—but the rental companies didn’t show any indication about how they plan to adapt to an electric future.Government
This year was largely a “wait and see” year for consumer protections and government policy on travel issues generally. Lots of issues got into the “must pass this year” FAA Reauthorization Act, but, of course, it didn’t pass, it was delayed.Overall, 2023 was a very good year for most travel metrics: Travel was up, profits were up, and lots of people got to go places. But many of the looming long-term problems got kicked down the road rather than getting solved. I sense that some of these issues will actually be resolved in 2024, but I’m not betting a lot of money on it.
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