When Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke at the Reagan National Defense Forum, he entitled his speech, “The Decisive Decade.” Author and geopolitical strategist, Jonathan D.T. Ward’s new book echoes the same sentiment, “The Decisive Decade: American Grand Strategy for Triumph Over China,” and breaks down the four arenas in which America must triumph in order to defeat its closest economic and military peer.
Ward tackles the current challenges within the arenas of economics, diplomacy, the military, and ideas. He suggests in the book that the 2020s is the decade that will decide whether or not the U.S. will continue as the leading force of the global future.
The Economic Arena
Ward tackles the first and, arguably, the most obvious issue: economics. He compares the current approach with the PRC as being the total opposite of the containment approach against the USSR during the Cold War. The author notes that many corporations have established manufacturing hubs in China, despite the PRC’s intellectual property theft, threats of confiscation, and espionage, among other offenses. Along with the USSR, Ward compares the decisions made by corporate executives in China as those made in the early 20th century in Nazi Germany, decisions made out of greed, opportunity, or perhaps commercial diplomacy.“Often in an interwar period, the success of global commerce leads to delusions of stability between states,” Ward writes. “Business leaders were then, as now, carried away by wishful thoughts of commerce as a means to pacify dangerous nation-states.”
No Easy Way Out
But all of this is easier said than done. Sun Tzu, the great Chinese general famous for “The Art of War,” asserted that one can know how to defeat the enemy without being able to do it. This seems to be the case. Ward is stating the obvious, but he does not lay out a plan of attack. He does not present a process by which these massive economic alterations are feasible. It appears that these companies have become so entrenched in the Chinese economy that pulling up their stakes might lead to their collapse, or at least falling far behind in the industrial and/or technological race.
Ward knows his history. He knows the numbers, economically and logistically. He knows the stances taken by democratic leaders within the Alliance System. But what he doesn’t seem to know, or at least decided not to inform the reader, is how.
How can what has been done be undone? Yes, choosing a different geographic location is the first step, but that step is more like a leap over a canyon. For companies, there is much, perhaps everything, to lose, if such a step, or leap, is taken, especially within a country that would strongly oppose a buyout. It isn’t like selling a house and purchasing a new one.
Economics First and Foremost
Indeed, the author does discuss four arenas: economic being the first. But ultimately everything hinges on that one. He discusses the diplomatic stances, but those stances fall flat if American companies are still benefiting China’s communist government. He addresses the military arena, but America is not only competing with the PRC, but a PRC that is militarily advancing by way of American ingenuity. His final arena is in the realm of ideas, but what good is an American idea if the Chinese can purchase it, or worse, steal it?Ward addresses all the right problems. He even provides solutions. But they don’t seem to fall into the arena of practicality, and that is because the first arena, the economic one, isn’t resolved. Ward’s book seems to rely on the hope that corporate executives will do the right thing because it is the right thing to do. Yes, it is the right thing to do morally and for national security (even global security) reasons, but those reasons have apparently proven unconvincing. Otherwise, these corporations would have done more than make grand moral gestures.
Ward asks the great question: “How can we expect to prevail in a long-term competition if we continue supporting the growth and improvement of the Chinese economy at the expense of our own?”
Indeed, “The Decisive Decade” is a poignant discussion on what must be decided. The problem is that it does not provide a way to make those decisions.
