Thousands of illegal migrants will be stuck in limbo and in need of accommodation by a government-created “perma-backlog” under current small boat busting plans, a think tank has warned.
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said that even if the Rwanda deal to remove those arriving in the UK illegally is ruled lawful, deportations are likely to be on a small scale—meaning arrivals will continue to outpace removals.
Blocked from working, illegal migrants could remain reliant on costly long-term government support and housing—with costs estimated to exceed £6 billion a year from 2028.
The much-criticised Illegal Migration Act—central to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats”—means asylum claims of those who arrive illegally will not be considered, and they face deportation to their home country or to a “safe” third nation such as Rwanda.
But flights destined for the East African country have yet to take off, with the policy currently awaiting an appeal decision in the courts, and there are no similar agreements with other countries.
Billions in Housing
Ministers are looking to house migrants on former military bases and a barge to reduce the expense of accommodating them in hotels, which is costing British taxpayers up to £6 million per day.IPPR researchers estimated that accommodation costs could exceed £6 billion a year after five years if only 50 people are removed to third countries each month.
The think tank also pointed to a risk of an expanding undocumented population, vulnerable to destitution, as people avoid the official system knowing they have no right to stay or fearing removal.
Marley Morris, IPPR’s associate director for migration, trade, and communities, said there is only a “very narrow window” for government success in dealing with illegal immigration.
“Even with the Act fully implemented, under most plausible scenarios arrivals will still outpace removals,” Mr. Morris said.
“This will mean a growing population of people permanently in limbo, putting huge pressure on Home Office accommodation and support systems—plus a risk of thousands of people who vanish from the official system and are at risk of exploitation and destitution.
“Any incoming government would be likely to face a dire and increasingly costly challenge which it would need to address urgently from the outset—there will be no option to ignore or sideline the crisis it inherits.”
Mr. Sunak has made stopping the boats one of his top five priorities ahead of next year’s likely general election.
Figures released on Tuesday show that almost 18,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel so far this year.
Chaos
Commenting on the IPPR report, Labour’s shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock said it backed up his party’s belief that the Illegal Migration Act “will not solve” the immigration chaos.He added: “Instead, it will make it worse, keeping more people locked in limbo waiting for years for asylum decisions and the taxpayer left footing an almighty bill.”
Mr. Kinnock said a Labour government would go after criminal gangs to tackle small-boat crossings, negotiate a returns deal with the European Union and clear the asylum backlog.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “The Illegal Migration Act will help to clear the asylum backlog by allowing us to detain and swiftly remove those who arrive here illegally.
“While we operationalise the measures in the Act, we continue to remove those with no right to be here through existing powers.
“We are also on track to clear the ‘legacy’ backlog of asylum cases. It has been reduced by a nearly a third since the start of December and we have doubled the number of asylum decision-makers in post over the past two years.”
The latest Home Office data shows 661 people made the journey in 15 boats on Monday, the third-highest daily total for 2023 to date.
This takes the provisional total for the year so far to 18,618, according to a PA news agency analysis of the government figures.
This is about 13 percent below the equivalent number at this point last year, when there had been more than 21,300 arrivals.
Last week 1,278 people made the journey, with crossings taking place on 6 out of 7 days.
The highest daily total for 2023 so far was recorded on Aug. 10 when 756 migrants made the crossing in 14 boats.
The second highest number detected in a single day was 686 people in 13 boats on July 7.
