Thousands More Schools, Roads and GP Surgeries Needed to Cope With Immigration, Research Shows

A file photograph shows a traffic jam as cars head towards the approach tunnel of Heathrow Airport, west London, Britain November 26, 2015. Reuters/Peter Nicholls/files

The UK will need thousands more schools, roads and GP surgeries to cope with current levels of mass immigration, research by a British think tank has found.

Migration Watch said public services will “simply be unable to cope” if net migration carries on at current record-high levels.

It predicts that if the current trend—which stands at 606,000 per year—continues, Britain’s population will skyrocket to between 83 and 87 million by 2046.

That would equate to creating fifteen cities the size of Birmingham, the think tank said.

The 15 million increase would require new schools, hospitals, roads, bus lanes, colleges and police stations, according to Migrant Watch analysis.

The population boom would also place an “intolerable strain” on public services—especially health, with 2,640 new doctor surgeries and 75 more hospitals to cope with demand.

“Should the level of net migration be allowed to continue, we will have to build around 6,675 new schools, 2,640 new surgeries, 135 hospitals, 75 universities, 75 police stations and 165 further education colleges by 2046,” the research paper said.

“Expansion of infrastructure on such a scale would be both difficult and costly to implement, but the pressure on public services would become too severe to ignore.”

Congestion

Migrant Watch said it calculated the estimates by taking current data from Birmingham City Council and multiplying it by 15.

However, it said the projections do not account for variations in geography and future settlement patterns, which cannot be forecast accurately in advance.

Nevertheless, it said the figures “provide a snapshot of the infrastructural challenges” that the government would face should current levels of net migration continue.

Of the 6,675 additional schools needed to cope with the demand, 3,885 of these would be primary schools, 1,230 secondary and 405 nurseries.

Over 400 special needs schools would also be required, according to the analysis. In addition to the impact on schools and hospitals, there would also the an impact of immigration on roads and transport systems, the report said.

“Should the level of net migration be allowed to continue until at about 600,000 a year until 2046, Britain will have to build around 7,785 new roads and 2,235 bus lanes.

“Diseconomies of congestion will occur when demand for road travel exceeds the supply of roads.”

Migrant Watch said that in terms of population size, large-scale immigration may have benefited sparsely populated countries when they needed a certain size of population to develop their resources and achieve economies of scale.

“However, the reverse is the case in a densely populated country like Britain: current levels of migration generate diseconomies of congestion and increase the cost of land and infrastructure.

“Rapid population growth means that some other investment that would otherwise occur will tend to be ‘crowded out’ to make way for the infrastructure needs of the increased population.”

Minister for Immigration Robert Jenrick leaves a Cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street in London on Sept. 5, 2023. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Clash

The report concluded that an annual limit on net migration—of about 100,000 a year—should be implemented by the government.

Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch UK said: “Unless we cut immigration substantially, the infrastructure that supports our public services, already stretched to its limits, will simply be unable to cope. We need a wider and franker debate and not just about the number of immigrants.”

Last month, immigration minister Robert Jenrick blamed a migrant points system introduced under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson for the “unsustainable” rise in those legally coming to the UK, and did not rule out putting a cap on visas.

Speaking at a fringe meeting at the Conservative Party Conference, Mr. Jenrick said a “substantial and sustained” reduction in numbers is needed, with too many low—and mid-skilled foreign workers taking jobs that should be done by Britons.

He confirmed he is working with Home Secretary Suella Braverman on potential measures to reduce net migration, which hit a record 606,000 last year.

The Home Office’s call to slash net migration is at odds with the Treasury, which has pushed the economic benefits of migration.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has previously sided with the Treasury, resisting Home Office demands for wider curbs.

Restrictions were limited earlier this year to a ban on postgraduates other than those doing research and bringing their families to the UK.

In a report released in October, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford and the London School of Economics said net migration is unlikely to drop below pre-Brexit levels by the end of the decade, remaining at around 250,000 to 350,000 a year.

But figures are likely to fall sharply from the current record high over the coming years, according to the report.

The war in Ukraine and people arriving in the UK from Hong Kong under resettlement schemes are said to have contributed to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate, which put net migration at 606,000 people last year.