China’s National People’s Congress has appointed Li Shangfu, a U.S.-sanctioned army general, as its Defense Minister. Analysts widely interpret this appointment as indicating Beijing’s growing aggressive stance towards the United States.
Li, born in 1958, served in the Equipment Development Department of China’s Central Military Commission for many years. As an aerospace expert, he contributed to critical advancements in Chinese aerospace defense technology, including the first lunar probe and anti-satellite missile test.
A Hurdle to Bilateral Military Talks
According to U.S.-based commentator Chen Pokong, the appointment of Li as China’s new defense chief will make bilateral military talks between China and the United States more difficult than before. Although Li’s role as Defense Minister is largely symbolic with limited authority, Chinese leader Xi Jinping may have some special considerations in mind when coming to this decision, Chen said in his self-media program.“If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) starts a war with another country, it would be difficult for Li to defect and flee. Given that he is already under U.S. sanctions, Li would face the possibility of further sanctions or arrest if he were to defect to other countries.
“That is, Xi Jinping regards Li’s being sanctioned by the United States as a means to restrain him. At least he thinks Li would not launch a coup or surrender to the enemy. This is probably Xi Jinping’s consideration at a deeper level,” Chen said.
Xi’s stubborn character may also be at play, according to Chen. “As the United States has sanctioned Li, Xi Jinping wanted to counteract and purposely promoted him as the Defense Minister.”
Because the U.S. and Chinese militaries need to maintain contact, especially defense ministers, the U.S. side would have to contact Li Shangfu. But the U.S. sanctions would be voided when doing so, so the CCP has seemingly challenged the United States. On the other hand, if the United States does not contact Li, it would be equivalent to the U.S. military not maintaining contact with the top Chinese military authority, Chen added.
Heightened Uncertainty as Xi Enters Third Term
In a March 16 interview with The Epoch Times, U.S. political and economic analyst Lu Yuanxing said that usually, there are exchanges and interactions between countries at the top levels, including the military, to avoid misunderstandings or unnecessary conflicts.“Such military exchanges are necessary, and the Defense Minister is the one who plays such a role,” Lu said.
However, since Xi has appointed a U.S.-sanctioned person to this role, the sanctions become null and void if the U.S. and China militaries want to communicate. If they do not speak and the sanction continues, it will enhance the possibility of misjudgment and even lead to military conflicts.
“This matter is a reflection of Xi Jinping’s attitude and his behavioral trait. Xi has already taken control of the military. If he wanted to ease relations between China and the United States, there would be no need to appoint such a person. He has made it clear that he wants to come out fighting and challenge the United States. In other words, he has made a tough and confrontational posture,” Lu commented.
Previously, Xi’s appointment of Qin Gang as foreign minister was seen as a desire to ease U.S.-China relations, but the appointment of Li shocked and puzzled the outside world.
“The world is now facing heightened uncertainty because of Xi’s behavior. It’s hard to predict what will happen next, and it’s hard to judge what he wants. From the way he acted after he began his third term, there is indeed [an] increased possibility of international conflicts,” Lu said.
