Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), was absent from two major military events recently. Analysts interpret these developments as signs of Xi’s waning influence over military affairs.
Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the CMC, chaired both events on Oct. 14 and 15. One was a two-day conference urging military officials to study modern warfare and combat theories, while the other was a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov. Xi toured Fujian province instead, a southern coastal province facing Taiwan.
Notably, He Weidong, Xi’s top confidant and the other CMC vice chairman who is junior to Zhang, was also absent from the military meeting, adding to the concern that Xi no longer wields absolute power in the Chinese military system.
China experts have flagged these unusual events as an indication of increasing power-sharing between Xi and other senior leaders.
Nearly all top military officials attended the two-day “Military Theory Conference,” a first during Xi’s tenure, while Xi issued “important instructions” without attending it, according to Chinese state-owned media.
Zhang also addressed the participants differently. In previous military meetings, Zhang often emphasized adherence to Xi’s “idea of strengthening the military” and the “CMC chairman responsibility system” that ensures the centralization of military authority in the CMC Chairman. But this time, he only talked about the need to study and implement Xi’s “important instructions,” omitting any mention of the two ”adherence” clichés.
Chen Pokong, a U.S.-based China expert, believes that some Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders have called for Xi to relinquish part of his power.
Citing the example of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong, Chen said that after the three years of the Great Famine (1959-1961), Liu Shaoqi, then China’s vice chairman, challenged Mao, who had to go into semi-retirement subsequently. Many historians of modern Chinese history suggest that the two leaders likely reached a private agreement that China’s propaganda would continue to glorify Mao as a great leader while Liu would have the real power to govern the country.
“Mao’s glorious image allowed him to instigate a grassroots ’revolution' to fight back against Liu at a later date, which was the beginning of the Cultural Revolution,” Chen said, hinting that the current CCP leaders must have learned from this lesson, hence curb Xi’s publicity and take measures to prevent Xi’s revenge.
Current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan said that Xi must have intended to be absent from the meeting with Belousov.
Xi’s inspection tour in Fujian appeared to lack any pressing significance. During the visit, he paid his respects to a deceased CCP cadre recognized as a model leader and delivered speeches on deepening economic reform, promoting technological innovation, and preserving the CCP’s local legacy.
“As the chairman of the Central Military Commission and in the context of a practical alliance with Putin, Xi did not meet with the Russian defense minister but instead went to Fujian to inspect the local economy. This phenomenon shows that the CCP has started changing its policy towards Russia,” Tang told NTD.
In his view, if Xi’s power is curbed, it is very likely that there will be some major changes in China’s top echelons regarding U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Taiwan Strait conflict.
Chen similarly believes that Xi has effectively been excluded from military affairs, with power in the Central Military Commission now resting in Zhang’s hands.
Xi and Zhang have had a strained relationship for some time. On Dec. 29, 2023, Chinese authorities announced the removal of nine military generals from their positions as National People’s Congress representatives, at least three of whom were connected to Zhang.
At the same time, Xi relied on his confidant He, the other CMC vice chairman, to oversee the CMC’s daily operations, an action Chen read as keeping Zhang in check.
Chen pointed out that Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the Chinese military has made him a target for high-ranking officials. As a result, they can no longer tolerate his absolute power over the military.
“Corruption in the Chinese military is pervasive and a long-standing problem. These officials have profited immensely and amassed wealth during the years of military preparedness. If the military really goes to war, it will soon become clear how much they have embezzled into their own pockets,” Chen added.
“They certainly have no desire to ignite a war with anyone. Xi has been advocating Taiwan’s reunification by force all these years, putting him increasingly at odds with these military officials.”
