The support of South Korea is absolutely crucial to the United States in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, according to veteran intelligence officer and author Grant Newsham.
He said that if China invades Taiwan, it’s vital that South Korea would allow the United States to deploy its forces on the Korean peninsula as part of contingency operations.
Newsham said that in a Taiwan invasion scenario, he expects that North Korea would either attack South Korea or cause enough trouble that the South Koreans will be forced to deal with it.
“But also it really is essential to have a South Korea that is at least supportive of the free nations that are trying to defend Taiwan. And that’s very important politically, as well. If it was a leftist administration in South Korea, you‘d see something very different. They’d probably be telling the Chinese, ‘Well, we don’t really take a position,‘ and implicitly saying, ’Have a go at it,’” he said.
South Korea Siding With US
On the other hand, Newsham noted that in a geographical sense, China poses a far greater threat to South Korea than to the United States.“South Korea is extremely important ... just look at the map,” he said. He also said that South Korea’s geography isn’t favorable, pointing out that it’s surrounded by enemies and rivals—including North Korea, China, and Russia to the north, and China also to the west and southwest.
“It’s pretty easy to isolate [or] surround South Korea in the event, for example, Taiwan gets taken,” he said.
“The South Koreans are well aware of this, and that is shaping some of their behavior, but they do need to see that they’ve got some friends who have their own act together, and that will stand up for them.”
Newsham pointed to Yoon’s recent comments regarding China and Taiwan.
“The Taiwan issue is not simply an issue between China and Taiwan but, like the issue of North Korea, it is a global issue,” Yoon said.
“Well, he’s sticking his neck out ... and that took some nerve for him to do it. So China is not going to be happy,” Newsham said.
Securing Confidence
However, the expert noted that the United States needs to secure its ally’s confidence by showing its seriousness in pushing back on China.“Do we have a clear, consistent position that people can actually believe—that they can actually see the results of it? Do we have a military that is serious about fighting—that’s all it’s focused on? Are we distracted domestically? Are we spending too much money debasing our own currency? Are we talking tough on China one minute and then saying, on the other hand, ‘Well, American business and finance, you guys can pour your resources, pour your money, technology, investment into China.'”
“[South Korea] will look at what we are actually doing, defense-wise, financially, economically—what is our own situation? Do we look like we’re serious? And that’s often something that’s hard to quantify in concrete terms. But sometimes people know it when they see it.”
