Chinese Premier Li Qiang was unexpectedly absent from a recent national meeting held in Beijing. A political analyst said that this is a deliberate arrangement, highlighting the fact that Xi Jinping, the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is gradually ostracizing Mr. Li. Another analyst believes that Mr. Li’s marginalization by Mr. Xi may be closely related to a Reuters report.
A Sign of Li’s Problematic Situation
United States-based current affairs commentator Chen Pokong said in his YouTube program on Oct. 11 that the top level of the CCP always makes meticulous arrangements when planning these events, and Li Qiang’s absence from the meeting was not accidental. This is a new signal that Li Qiang is currently in a problematic situation.“This is obviously a deliberate arrangement.” Mr. Chen said.
He further pointed out that Mr. Li became the number two figure in the party after the CCP’s 20th National Congress last year, but Mr. Xi did not give him any real power. It is likely that after Mr. Li came to power, he considered himself to be Mr. Xi’s confidant and therefore expressed his views frankly. Perhaps he still advocates reform and opening up, support for private enterprises, and improvement of U.S.–China relations, but all these advocacies are ultimately incompatible with Xi’s ideology.
“It is possible that the differences in various aspects such as economic policies and political lines have caused Xi Jinping to dislike Li Qiang, believing that he is not as submissive as someone like Cai Qi,” Mr. Chen said.
Mr. Chen also said that Mr. Li’s position is so prominent that taking him down all of a sudden would cause a huge shock both domestically and internationally. However, recent events seem to indicate that Mr. Xi’s intention to exclude Mr. Li has emerged, including Mr. Xi not allowing Mr. Li to host the reception for the 74th anniversary of the founding of the CCP in late September nor allowing him to deliver a speech at the reception, which is a break from the CCP’s usual practice that has been in place for more than seven decades.
The Turning Point: A Reuters Report
China expert and current affairs commentator Zhang Tianliang believes that a Reuters report published on March 3 broke the relationship between Mr. Xi and Mr. Li.In his YouTube program, on Oct. 11, Mr. Zhang said, the Reuters article described how Mr. Li pushed to end Mr. Xi’s zero-COVID policy at the end of 2022, a time when Mr. Li was about to take over the premiership.
According to Reuters, as unprecedented protests against the zero-COVID policy escalated across China in November 2022, Mr. Li, who had just been promoted to the second-ranking member of the CCP’s Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, seized the opportunity. In the previous weeks, senior CCP officials and medical experts had been quietly working on a plan to repeal Mr. Xi’s zero-COVID policy and gradually reopen the country by the end of 2022, with the goal of declaring a return to normalcy by March 2023.
The article stated that Mr. Li had more sense of urgency than Mr. Xi in lifting the zero-COVID policy, and it was Mr. Li who suddenly decided to initiate the reopening plan earlier than expected in an effort to curb the economic losses caused by strict lockdown and protests that have upset the top leaders of the CCP.
Mr. Zhang commented that it can be seen from the Reuters report that Mr. Li showed a more pragmatic attitude during this decision-making process. At that time, Mr. Li likely believed that reversing Mr. Xi’s policies would be more beneficial to the CCP and would actually help Mr. Xi, and thus, he made this decision, even leveraging the pressure from the White Paper Protests to push Mr. Xi to end the lockdown and control.
“But here a problem arises immediately, as this actually violates Xi Jinping’s taboo, especially after the Reuters report was published,” Mr. Zhang said. “Xi Jinping may think, ‘My dynamic zero-COVID policy was ended by Li Qiang, and my iconic economic policy was also ended by Li Qiang. Do I listen to Li Qiang, or does Li Qiang listen to me? Am I the boss, or is Li Qiang the boss?’ So I think the Reuters report is enough to sow the seeds of a breakdown in the relationship between Xi Jinping and Li Qiang.”
Mr. Zhang pointed out that Mr. Li has been working hard to restore his relationship with Mr. Xi, as he has kept a low profile and avidly promoted Xi Jinping Thought after becoming China’s premier.
Nonetheless, Mr. Li did not attend the National Trade Union Congress, which was usually attended by all members of the Politburo Standing Committee. This shows that the relationship between Mr. Xi Jinping and Mr. Li is far from being repaired, Mr. Zhang said.
