Since falling into a debt crisis, giant Chinese private property developer Country Garden announced on Oct. 10 that it has HK$470 million (about US$60 million) due and is expected to be unable to fulfill repayment of all foreign debts even in the grace period.
According to the announcement, Country Garden has hired high-profile law firm Sidley Austin LLP to assess the company’s capital structure and liquidity position to formulate an overall solution.
The move means that Country Garden’s overseas debt restructuring work has been officially launched. The company said that it hopes to fully resolve its current offshore debt crisis.
There are 15 public U.S. dollar-denominated bonds of Country Garden with a total principal amount of approximately US$9.3 billion at maturity. Among them, there are two bonds due in 2024, which are US$965 million and US$537 million. This year, Country Garden is struggling with the interest payment of the U.S. dollar bonds, which does not yet involve the maturity of the principal amount.
Country Garden said its sales have been under significant pressure in 2023, with equity sales amounting to approximately 154.98 billion yuan (US$21.2 billion) from January to September 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 43.9 percent. This is due to China’s current real estate decline.
Country Garden has been relying on grace periods to avoid a debt default. On Sept. 5, the company completed the interest payment on two overseas bonds totaling US$22.5 million. These two interest payments were supposed to be made on Aug. 7 but were not paid as scheduled. Both bond interest payments had a 30-day grace period, preventing a material default.
In August, Country Garden admitted publicly for the first time that the company has encountered the greatest crisis since its founding.
According to the company’s profit warning, the first half of this year’s net loss will be between 45 billion and 55 billion yuan (US$6.16-7.52 billion), while the same period last year’s net profit was still 1.91 billion yuan (US$260 million).
Postponing Debt Repayment Dates
The U.S.-based political and economic analyst Lu Yuanxing said in an interview with The Epoch Times on Oct. 13 that Country Garden’s foreign and domestic debts could not be repaid, and it is only relying on rolling over their debt, which was recently approved for three years, to postpone the inevitable.As of Sept. 30, Country Garden has delivered about 420,000 new homes in China, and about 280,000 units are still yet to be delivered.
Mr. Lu pointed out that the delivery of properties also requires sufficient capital. “There are a lot of projects under construction by Country Garden. It costs a lot of money to complete these projects,“ he said. ”So, does Country Garden have sufficient capital to ensure its completion? It appears to be quite difficult now.”
Mr. Lu said if Country Garden fails to deliver its properties, China would face a huge problem as home buyers have already paid down payments and applied for mortgages. People would be paying their mortgages without owning a home, leading to significant social unrest. Home buyers in many parts of the country have protested to defend their rights, but almost all of them have been violently suppressed by the Chinese authorities.
Crisis Likely to Impact Banking Sector
As China’s top real estate company, the market impact of Country Garden’s debt crisis will be significant and will likely impact the country’s banking sector.Mr. Lu said that almost all real estate companies in China achieved rapid expansion by borrowing from banks, but a large portion of this capital has gone into the pockets of individuals due to corruption.
“For example, in the loan process, real estate companies, government officials, and banks usually collude with each other through bribes and various special interests. So a lot of money has been in the pockets of elite executives in China,” Mr. Lu said.
He also said that some of the practices of Country Garden in the early stage showed that it was conducting a transfer of funds.
“Country Garden Board Chairman Yang Huiyan made a large donation to some overseas charitable trust foundations. In reality, they were transferring capital overseas, and it will eventually end up in their own pockets,” he claimed.
Wider Economic Impacts
Davy Jun Huang, a U.S.-based economist, told The Epoch Times on Oct. 13 that the impact of Country Garden’s debt differs from that of Evergrande, the other Chinese real estate giant in deep financial trouble.Mr. Huang said that Country Garden has always been regarded as a role model in Chinese real estate and has always maintained a positive image. The company has more projects all over China than Evergrande. This means that it will have a much wider impact on China if the company is in financial turmoil.
He said that the financial woes of Country Garden and Evergrande, combined with the current downward trend of China’s economy and the strained relations between the United States, China, and the European Union, will lead investors to actively adjust their investment ratio in emerging markets in China.
Along with the rising risks of emerging markets, investment funds may reduce the proportion of investment in the Chinese market. As a result, they will reduce their exposure to China in the future, which will have a negative impact on the enthusiasm and scale of investment in the Chinese market.
“In terms of public opinion, Evergrande has received much more attention than Country Garden, but the impact of Country Garden and Evergrande is different,” Mr. Huang said.
“In terms of public opinion and among general home buyers and investors, Evergrande will have a greater impact because it is such a massive corporation. Country Garden, on the other hand, will have a greater negative impact on professional investors and investment funds.”
