CCP’s Power Struggles Lead to a ‘Divided and Dysfunctional’ Chinese Military: Analyst

Vice chairmen of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), Zhang Youxia and He Weidong (front), swear an oath with members of the CMC after they were appointed during the fourth plenary session of China's rubber stamp legislature, the National People's Congress, in Beijing, on March 11, 2023. Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

The recent meeting between a vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and newly promoted Chinese academicians is viewed by some China observers as indicative of a rift between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and a faction within the military.

The Chinese state media reported that on Jan. 10, Gen. He Weidong, vice chairman of the CMC, met with newly promoted academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering and congratulated them on behalf of Xi. Adm. Miao Hua, a member of the CMC and director of the Political Work Department of the CMC, also attended the meeting.

U.S.-based China political analyst Chen Pokong opined that the meeting indicated divisions among CMC members. In an interview with the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 12, Mr. Chen said that the CCP held the third plenary session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) on Jan. 8–10.

“One vice chairman [Zhang Youxia] was conspicuously absent, while another vice chairman [He Weidong], who wasn’t expected to attend, was present,” he noted.

Mr. Chen pointed out that, considering military protocol and responsibilities, the logical choice to meet the academicians alongside Adm. Miao would have been Gen. Zhang Youxia, as he is the first-ranked vice chairman responsible for the military’s political work. However, the unexpected presence of Gen. He, a lower-ranked official, in this meeting deviated from the usual protocol.

Therefore, Mr. Chen suggested that the exclusion of Gen. Zhang from the meeting was a deliberate move by Xi. “Xi Jinping intentionally sent He Weidong and excluded Zhang Youxia from the meeting, just like how he promoted Cai Qi and Li Qiang by skipping through the CCP’s hierarchy in the past,” he said.

Furthermore, Mr. Chen said that something may have happened at the third plenary session of the CCDI, such as Xi may have criticized Gen. Zhang and his associates and the missing former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, but Xi did not dare to remove them from their positions at that time even if he was dissatisfied with them.

“We will probably see fewer appearances from the Zhang faction, which means that they’re being marginalized and excluded and will no longer be treated well by Xi Jinping,” Mr. Chen said.

“The people valued by Xi Jinping include He Weidong, Miao Hua, and the recently promoted Defense Minister Dong Jun. This means that the CMC is divided and dysfunctional.”

The Factions in the CMC

Mr. Chen said that in the past, members of the CMC were divided into two factions: one group included Xi, Gen. He, and Adm. Miao, while the other included Gen. Zhang Youxia, Gen. Liu Zhenli, Gen. Zhang Shengmin, and the missing former Defense Minister Gen. Li, whose disappearance means that Gen. Zhang Youxia has lost his wingman.

In late August 2023, Gen. Li vanished from public view, and on Oct. 24, he was ousted from his roles as state councilor, minister of national defense, and member of the CMC.

Xi launched a major purge of the Chinese military last month, mainly targeting the top echelon of the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force. Nine military generals were removed as deputies to the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s rubber-stamp legislature, including three generals and at least four lieutenant generals, mainly from the Rocket Force and the Equipment Development Department of the CMC.

Potential Future Internal Conflicts

According to Mr. Chen, there are pro- and anti-American factions, as well as pro- and anti-war factions, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

“Xi Jinping belongs to the far-left anti-American faction, while the missing Li Shangfu, the former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and the dismissed senior members of the Rocket Force all belong to the pro-American, anti-war faction,” he said.

“In a democratic country, having two factions in the military leadership is beneficial as they can serve as checks and balances on each other. However, in the totalitarian system of the CCP, this is likely to lead to unimaginable struggles or even a coup.”

Mr. Chen added that the power struggles within the CCP’s top leadership have ended, while infighting within the Chinese military is now the primary focal point and is “much more severe” than outside observers have imagined.

Xi Breaks Protocols

On Dec. 29, the CCP announced the appointment of Adm. Dong Jun as the new minister of national defense, replacing Gen. Li. Adm. Dong became the first Chinese navy admiral to serve as defense minister and the shortest-serving navy commander in communist China’s military history.

Mr. Chen believes Xi’s move to promote Adm. Dong is unprecedented and breaks longstanding military norms.

He said that Adm. Dong, who is neither a member of the Central Committee nor the CMC, would not have been appointed defense minister in the past. “To the top CCP elites in Beijing, Dong Jun is just a grassroots figure who has just assumed the post of the navy commander,” he said.

Mr. Chen further explained that Xi promoted Adm. Dong because he was not a threat. “This is because Dong Jun did not have political connections and resources in Beijing after his promotion. Xi Jinping promoted such a person to give himself some peace of mind,” he said.

“In fact, Xi Jinping does not have anyone to use or to trust, and he does not necessarily trust Dong Jun. However, since he has promoted Dong Jun to minister of national defense, he will certainly put him into the CMC. Xi Jinping has completely ignored some of the internal rules and norms of the CCP. This is yet another evidence of his authoritarian behavior and cronyism.”

Xin Ning contributed to this report.