The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “destruction of human capital” over the past decades has not only jeopardized its ambition but also “killed off its future,” according to Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute.
In the 1980s, the CCP rolled out the “one-child policy,” strictly limiting couples to having only one baby. Those who defied the policy faced punishment, including heavy fines, job loss, and forced abortions. Officials argued that the rule was necessary for the nation’s economic prosperity and long-term development.
However, in response to a shrinking labor force and a rapidly aging population, the authorities are taking measures to boost birth rates.
“With China’s economy on the downturn, with China’s population aging and dying more rapidly than any human population has in the history of the planet, the 21st century will not belong to China, in part because of the continued misrule of the Chinese Communist Party. But in large part because of the killing off of half of the last few generations.”
According to Mr. Mosher, who was among the first U.S. social scientists to live and work among villagers in China in the late 1970s, the “one-child policy” led to “the largest destruction of human capital that the world has ever seen.” He noted that officials at China’s Family Planning Commission touted that the policy prevented “400 million” births, claiming that the rule reduced the pressure on resources and environment.
The loss of 400 million births, however, would inevitably cause damage to the country’s economy over time, said Mr. Mosher. “It’s what has happened,” he added.
China is grappling with a growing economic challenge as its real estate sector—a major contributor to the country’s GDP as noted by Mr. Mosher—is in crisis.
“In killing off half of the last two generations, the Chinese Communist Party has killed off its future literally. ... The only future that a nation has are its families and children,” he said.
‘No Way Out’ of ‘Demographic Trap’
China’s birth rate has rapidly declined in recent years.Official data indicate the reality is worse, according to Mr. Mosher.
“The fact they would admit that number … means that the real number is probably lower,” he said. “The Chinese Communist Party’s statistics are always massaged for propaganda purposes.”
Local officials, according to Mr. Mosher, have “an incentive” to exaggerate the demographic figure “a little bit.”
“Officials at all levels get subsidies from the central government based on how many people they have under their control. Schools get subsidies based on how many students they have; hospitals get subsidies based on how many patients they have, and so on and so forth throughout the entire government,” Mr. Mosher said, adding that he is also skeptical of official numbers of China’s population, currently at 1.4 billion.
Even if the fertility rate remains at around one child per woman, China is on track to lose its status as the world’s most populous country, with the U.S. population expected to surpass China’s, said Mr. Mosher, adding that this shift could occur as early as 2060 or possibly as late as 2070. He projected that by the end of this century, China’s population may dwindle to just 400 million people.
“That’s the achievement of the Chinese Communist Party: the killing off of the majority of the Chinese people over time,” he said.
China’s demographic problem is similar to challenges facing developed nations such as the United States and Japan. But China is still a middle-income country, with hundreds of millions of people still relatively poor, Mr. Mosher noted.
“China is growing old before it grew rich,” he said. In comparison, nations in the West “grew rich before they grew old, which meant they had the resources to continue to prosper even as the population was aging, and the workforce was starting to level out and shrink.”
Forced Pregnancy
If incentives fail to stem the population decline, Mr. Mosher warned that coercive measures that force young Chinese to marry and to have a large family could potentially be implemented.Instructions have already been issued to individuals under the direct authority of the CCP. On Sept. 7, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the chairman of the Central Military Commission, authorized a 33-point family planning policy, encouraging military personnel to marry and have up to three children.
“They use the word ‘encourage’ … but, of course, what that means in practice is an order. When your commander in chief says, ‘Be fruitful and multiply, have children,’ then your promotions are going to be pegged to whether or not you obey that command,” Mr. Mosher said.
It is not the first time the CCP wanted its members to take the lead, Mr. Mosher noted. In 2016, when Beijing scrapped the “one-child policy,” authorities in Yichang, a city in the central Hubei Province, published a document on the government’s website, calling on CCP members and public servants to have two children.
“Young comrades should start with themselves, and old comrades should educate and supervise their children,” officials said in the now-deleted memo, according to screenshots published by state media. The document stated that after nearly four decades of the “one-child policy,” Yichang’s fertility rate fell below 1.0 at the time.
A similar directive reemerged after Beijing raised the family planning rule to three. In a December 2021 state media editorial, CCP members were told to fulfill their duty by having three children.
“Party members cannot use any excuse—either objective or personal—to not get married or have children. Nor can they use any excuse to have only one or two children,” according to the op-ed published on China Reports Network. Within 24 hours after it was published on the news outlet’s website, the article disappeared, though discussions continued on the Chinese social media platform Weibo.
In addition to government directives, Mr. Mosher mentioned that various provinces in China have encouraged young men, particularly college students, to donate sperm earlier this year. There are 29 institutions authorized to establish sperm banks, as listed on the NHC’s website. However, China does not have any egg banks.
“Maybe that’s coming, where young women will be told to donate their eggs for in vitro fertilization and raising test tube babies,” Mr. Mosher said. “But I’m afraid that what they will do is a simpler solution technologically.
“I think that young women will not be told to donate their eggs; they'll be told to donate their uteruses and themselves. They will be told that, for the good of the country, for the good of China’s prosperity, [and] for the good of [the] future of China, they must consent to have children, and there will be quotas announced. And there will be penalties for not obeying.”
The CCP imposed such coercive family planning measures on Chinese women for decades, according to Mr. Mosher. During the “one-child policy” era, pregnant women could be subjected to forced abortions for various reasons, ranging from being under 21 years of age to lacking government permission.
“China has controlled, in a top-down fashion, the fertility of the country for decades, to drive down the fertility. What would stand in the way of the Chinese Communist Party from doing the opposite of using young women as a captive reproductive force to repopulate the country now that they’ve effectively centered in a downward spiral demographically?” Mr. Mosher asked. “I can’t see any moral reasons and ethical reasons why the Communist Party would hesitate for a minute to do that.”
‘Total Control’
It’s not just about population control. As Mr. Mosher pointed out, the CCP has strived for “total control” of the country since it was founded in 1921, and this ambition was evident in the regime’s zero-COVID policy.
Mr. Mosher said Beijing’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic signaled that it was preparing for war.
Mr. Mosher cautioned against using communist China as an example or model.
“We also have to realize that we should never, under any circumstances, however dangerous they may seem, learn any lessons, take any advice from the Chinese Communist Party, which has effectively been in a cold war with the United States from the founding of the People’s Republic of China.”
