Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the head of the Afghan Taliban Political Commission, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in China’s Tianjin city on July 28. Wang said, “The hasty withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan actually marks the failure of the U.S. policy toward Afghanistan.”
It seems Wang was alluding that Beijing could have done a better job than the United States. However, I believe the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would fail in standing up for the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Pitfalls
First, the CCP could experience a conflict with the Taliban over human rights abuses against ethnic groups in China’s far-western Xinjiang region.“Our exhaustive documentation of the PRC’s actions in Xinjiang confirms that since at least March 2017, local authorities dramatically escalated their decades-long campaign of repression against Uyghur Muslims and members of other ethnic and religious minority groups, including ethnic Kazakhs and ethnic Kyrgyz,” Pompeo said.
While the Taliban will accommodate the CCP in some ways in exchange for support and economic benefits, it will neither give up its substantive support for the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) nor fight with it. The Taliban wouldn’t want to risk losing its legitimacy or triggering infighting among different Islamic groups. The ETIM is a Uyghur separatist group that Beijing claims is responsible for many terrorist attacks in Xinjiang.
Second, the CCP faces constraints from inside the Taliban and from the international community.
There is still a question of whether or not the Taliban can take full control of the situation in Afghanistan.
As far as the Taliban is concerned, there are Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban. The latter used to be a branch of the former and became independent in 2007 due to differences in interests. The Afghan Taliban itself is not a monolithic group and there are considerable differences in political views among its members as well.
As far as international involvement is concerned, there are at least eight parties—the United States, Russia, Pakistan, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and China—all of which are intertwined and complex. Undoubtedly, the CCP’s ability to intervene in the Taliban and Afghanistan is limited.
Third, the CCP faces two major direct threats from Afghanistan.
The second threat is cross-border drug trafficking, which brings in the huge income that the Taliban has relied on.
The aforementioned threats and pitfalls are likely to become more serious after the Taliban comes to power.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on the phone with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi “about developments in Afghanistan, including the security situation and our respective efforts to bring U.S. and PRC citizens to safety,” according to the U.S. Department of State on Aug. 16. Perhaps this call could remind Beijing not to misjudge the situation, which might bring harm to China and the CCP itself.