Xi Jinping Courts South Korea as North Korea Aligns with Russia, Stirring Unease in China

China's National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee Chairman Li Zhanshu (L) attends with South Korea's National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo (R) during a joint news conference with South Korea's National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on Sept.16, 2022. Kim Hong-Ji - Pool/Getty Images

In a recent turn of events, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has proposed a state visit to South Korea, signaling a new chapter in strategic relations between the two nations. This gesture is seen as part of a larger initiative to foster peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Experts are of the view that Mr. Xi’s overture comes as a countermeasure to the burgeoning alliance between North Korea and Russia—an alliance that could disrupt China’s longstanding influence over the region.

South Korea remains the sole power capable of militarily countering North Korea, making it a significant variable in China’s calculations. Moreover, Mr. Xi aims to dismantle the existing trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, particularly in light of South Korea’s current administration led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, which has adopted an anti-communist stance.

Interestingly, during a meeting with South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo at the Asian Games in Hangzhou, Mr. Xi welcomed the idea of a trilateral summit involving China, Japan, and South Korea. Yet, China’s Foreign Ministry remained silent on this development in their subsequent press release.

Concerns in Beijing

While South Korea has traditionally been economically tethered to China, the relationship has shown signs of strain since President Yoon Suk Yeol took office. Unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who maintained a China-friendly policy, Yoon has upheld South Korea’s established diplomatic norms, raising concerns in Beijing.

(L-R) Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio arrive for a joint news conference following three-way talks at Camp David, Md., on Aug.18, 2023. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Statistics from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) reveal a notable shift: South Korea’s reliance on the Chinese export market dipped from 26.8 percent in 2018 to 19.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023.

This decline corresponds with South Korea’s efforts to align more closely with U.S. policies, which have involved restricting high-end semiconductor exports to China. As a result, exports to China plummeted by 29.8 percent in the first quarter of this year.

South Korea has also been proactively diversifying its export markets. In 2021, exports to countries like the United States, India, Australia, and Vietnam surged, boasting Market Comparative Advantage (MCA) indices between 6 and 7—significantly higher than China’s 4.

Independent analyst Zhuge Mingyang posits that South Korea’s declining economic reliance on China could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences. By diversifying its economic portfolio, South Korea risks loosening China’s grip, not only economically but also in terms of strategic influence over the Korean Peninsula.

This development may well explain why Mr. Xi is making concerted efforts to mend fences with South Korea, as China finds itself increasingly marginalized in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

US-Korea-Japan Alignment Intensifies Over THAAD

The installation of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system in South Korea by the United States has long been a point of contention for China. Under the previous administration of President Moon Jae-in, Beijing successfully exerted pressure to limit further deployments. However, the current South Korean administration under Mr. Yoon has deviated significantly from this stance, opting for a closer alliance with the United States and Japan.

In April 2017, South Korea green-lighted the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, drawing swift and punitive actions from China, including economic boycotts and cultural bans. Beijing argued the system was a threat to its national security. In November 2017, to ease tensions, Moon Jae-in’s administration committed to a “three no’s” policy: no additional THAAD deployments, no participation in the U.S. missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan. Despite this, China continued its economic and cultural reprisals against South Korea.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency/Handout via Reuters

Policy Reversal Under Yoon

Upon taking office, Mr. Yoon broke from his predecessor’s accommodating approach, strengthening military ties with the United States and extending an olive branch to Japan. Mr. Yoon’s administration was forthright in its communication with Beijing; South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin clarified during an August 2022 visit to China that the “three no’s” policy was not binding.

At the Camp David Summit on Aug. 18, the United States, Japan, and South Korea inked the “Camp David Principles,” aiming to elevate collaboration in the arenas of security, economy, and technology. Mr. Yoon affirmed South Korea’s commitment to upholding the international order and promoting security, adding that the summit’s purpose aligned with containing China’s influence.

Robert Daly, an analyst at the American think tank Wilson Center, noted that the summit marked a significant milestone in mending Japan-South Korea relations. This tripartite accord underscores the failure of China’s attempts to drive a wedge between these nations, rendering Beijing geopolitically isolated.

“Xi Jinping’s prospective visit to South Korea seems designed to galvanize pro-Beijing factions within the country and to put pressure on the Yoon administration,” commented independent analyst Zhuge Mingyang, adding that the objective is likely to destabilize the strengthening U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance.

Kim Jong Un’s Russian Rendezvous

In a surprising turn of events, North Korea, long considered a close ally of China, is making diplomatic moves that have unsettled Beijing. Traditionally a relationship rooted in mutual dependency, the friendship between China and North Korea now seems increasingly fragile.

Between Sept. 10 and 17, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un embarked on a week-long, high-profile visit to Russia. Accompanied by a series of meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Kim’s itinerary also included tours of key Russian facilities, such as aerospace manufacturing centers and the Pacific Fleet base. According to North Korean media, the discussions were “sincere and frank,” covering an array of issues and current collaborative projects, culminating in “satisfactory agreements and consensus.”

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (centre L) and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (centre R) visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur region, Russia, on Sept. 13, 2023. Vladimir Smirnov/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Although specifics were not revealed, it’s widely speculated that Russia and North Korea may have entered agreements related to military technology and weaponry. Mr. Putin hinted during a post-meeting press conference that Russia would assist North Korea in satellite manufacturing, signaling Mr. Kim’s ambitions to expand into the aerospace sector.

In a Politburo meeting held on Sept. 20, Mr. Kim directed his country to take proactive steps in various sectors to elevate North Korean-Russian relations to unprecedented levels. Mr. Kim called for increased inter-departmental cooperation between the two nations and advocated for expanding multi-sectoral collaboration.

The newfound partnership has piqued the interest of the United States, Japan, and South Korea and has particularly ruffled feathers in China. North Korea has long served as a strategic asset for China in countering the influence of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. A substantial alliance between North Korea and Russia could not only loosen China’s grip over its erstwhile ally but could also emerge as a strategic threat to China. Currently, South Korea remains the only nation capable of militarily countering North Korea’s growing influence.

Xi Grapples with Mounting Domestic Pressures

As China faces escalating crises both at home and abroad, Mr. Xi finds himself in a tightening vice of challenges. Analysts suggest that his recent attempts to mend relations with South Korea may be a desperate bid to claw back some semblance of stability and success.

China's leader Xi Jinping inspects People's Liberation Army soldiers at a barracks in Hong Kong on June 30, 2017. Dale De La Rey/AFP via Getty Images

“Although Xi Jinping wields considerable power, he faces almost universal opposition within the Communist Party itself. Imagine the immense pressure he must be under to maintain his grip on authority,” posits independent analyst Zhuge Mingyang.

Mr. Xi’s struggles are compounded by recent setbacks in foreign policy. Rahm Emanuel, U.S. Ambassador to Japan, has openly criticized Mr. Xi as “incompetent” in economics and a “foreign-policy failure.” Both President Joe Biden and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have also labeled Mr. Xi a “dictator.”

China’s economy teeters on the edge of collapse, with crises unfolding in the real estate sector, escalating local government debts, and ominous signs of financial instability even in directly-administered cities like Tianjin. Mr. Xi has responded with a heavy-handed approach, purging the military and his immediate circle, leading Mr. Emanuel to quip that none of the officials around Mr. Xi are likely to “survive.”

Political commentator Li Yiming believes that “if Xi could mend fences with South Korea, it would mark a significant diplomatic win, somewhat rehabilitating his increasingly tarnished reputation and easing internal pressures. Nevertheless, the eventual downfall of the Communist Party seems an unavoidable fate.”

As early as February of this year, financier George Soros warned that despite Mr. Xi’s current stranglehold over all instruments of suppression, his long-term survival is far from guaranteed and that his dreams of political and military dominance are destined to remain unfulfilled, and the Communist Party will have to brace for either “regime change or revolution.”