China’s Latest Rocket Launch Signals Intensifying Satellite Race

A long March-2F carrier rocket carrying the Shenzhou-19 spacecraft and crew of three astronauts lifts off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, in the Gobi desert, northwest China, on Oct. 30, 2024. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

Low Earth orbit (LEO) has become the high ground in an intensifying space race, now centered on quick and affordable satellite launches that shape everything from global communications to military operations.

“Whoever puts up satellites first has the strategic advantage; latecomers are left with less favorable locations and altitudes,” retired Taiwanese Air Force Lt. Gen. Chang Yen-ting told The Epoch Times.

Historically, many satellites were stationed in geostationary orbit (GEO), 22,300 miles above the equator. Three GEO satellites can cover the entire globe, but the signal delay is significant due to the distance. LEO satellites, orbiting at an altitude of 1,200 miles, are much more suited for telecommunications, but the need for a constellation, or large fleet, was cost-prohibitive until SpaceX proved otherwise with its Starlink.

China is playing catch-up.

Although China’s recent launch of the Long March 8A rocket was promoted as the debut of a new rocket model aimed at deploying low-orbit internet satellites, analysts say it highlights Beijing’s ambition to catch up with U.S. LEO networks and challenge the United States’ lead in space technology.

“China’s space program supports economic development and advances national defense modernization. Successes in space signify the emergence of the PRC as a world power,” the Aerospace Center for Space Policy and Strategy, a U.S. think tank, stated in a report released last October.

China’s Feb. 11 mission deployed 10 internet satellites similar in function to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which is launched primarily via the Falcon 9 rocket and already has around 7,000 active satellites in orbit. In comparison, China launched its first group of 18 LEO satellites in August 2024 and 10 more in December 2024 before this latest launch.

The Long March 8A can lift 7.7 tons to an orbit around 435 miles above Earth—an improvement over older Chinese rockets—but it still trails SpaceX’s Falcon 9 in both payload capacity and launch frequency.

In 2024, China aimed for 100 satellite launches but only managed 68, whereas SpaceX completed 134 successful Falcon launches during the same period. Moreover, SpaceX is preparing its fully reusable Starship—a key part of its strategy to dramatically reduce launch costs.

By reusing both the first and second stages and streamlining ground operations, SpaceX aims to slash costs per kilogram to orbit far below current industry standards. This could potentially make it cheaper to deploy a satellite than to build ground-based 5G stations for equivalent area coverage.

Chang said SpaceX currently leads in innovation, rocket reusability, and cost efficiency—all critical factors in building large constellations quickly.

To narrow the gap, Beijing is developing several massive LEO constellations—Guowang (National Network), Qianfan (Thousand Sails), and Honghu-3 (Swan)—and plans to launch more than 38,000 satellites by 2030.

Shen Ming-shih, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times that Beijing sees these networks not just as commercial internet providers, but also as strategic assets for communications, surveillance, and potentially military applications.

For example, satellite-based internet has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s defense, exemplifying how LEO constellations can directly impact military outcomes by providing resilient battlefield communications.

Yet there is a limiting factor. While Chang notes that “first to orbit” enjoys an advantage in physically occupying certain LEO corridors, the actual regulatory framework is governed by the International Telecommunication Union. The union oversees frequency coordination and licensing for satellite systems—a process that can take years and must comply with “use it or lose it” requirements.

Future of Wireless Communications

A major shift in satellite technology is the growing ability to link directly to smartphones. Apple recently partnered with T-Mobile and SpaceX to enable iPhones to connect directly to Starlink, and Samsung made a similar move. Such services could bypass ground-based networks, including government-controlled internet filters, a scenario Beijing wants to avoid.

The Chinese communist regime is expected to block any Starlink access for China’s more than 200 million iPhone users. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has publicly stated that Beijing has demanded he keep Starlink out of China.

For now, China is planning for its own satellite “intranet”—a closed, regime-controlled internal network—through the Guowang network, though analysts such as Shen doubt it can match Starlink’s scale anytime soon.

Despite frequent characterizations as “commercial” or “scientific,” China’s satellite programs have clear dual-use potential. The U.S. Department of Defense has documented Beijing’s investments in counter-space capabilities such as directed-energy weapons, satellite jammers, and anti-satellite missiles. Chinese state media have also discussed simulating strikes against Starlink-like constellations, signaling that these networks could be prime targets in a conflict.

Taiwan’s defense community is watching closely, aware that a future cross-strait scenario might involve attacks on each side’s space-based assets. Experts warn that if any major war breaks out, satellites critical to communications and command-and-control systems could be among the first casualties.

Many governments remain wary of the Chinese regime’s space ambitions. In Europe, the German government in 2023 blocked a Shanghai-based firm from fully acquiring a German satellite startup. In countries such as Pakistan, both SpaceX and Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology are seeking entry, but licensing and geopolitical complications persist.

In raw numbers, China still lags behind American efforts: The United States has thousands of LEO satellites in operation, dwarfing China’s few dozen. However, as more mega-constellations take shape, the competition to secure orbital real estate, licenses, and frequencies is only heating up.

By building out these large-scale LEO systems, the Chinese regime aims to achieve comprehensive internet coverage at home, enforce its own regulatory controls, and eventually offer services internationally. However, it remains to be seen whether it can overcome the technical and regulatory head-start enjoyed by SpaceX and other Western companies.

Xin Ning contributed to this report.