Up to 100,000 extra pensioners could be forced into relative poverty by 2027 because the government cut Winter Fuel Payments, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has estimated.
That figure will stay the same in 2026, rising to 100,000 in 2027, before falling to 50,000 in 2028. That number will rise again to 100,000 in 2029 and remain at that figure in 2030.
Households in relative poverty have less than 60 percent the income of the national average.
Pensioners ‘Will Be Better Off’
In the letter sent to Debbie Abrahams, the Labour chairwoman of the Work and Pensions Committee, Kendall stressed that the annual figures are not cumulative—meaning the figures are yearly total estimates, not that there will by 450,000 more people in poverty by 2030—and that estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000.The minister also added the caveats that the figures “are a result of the policy change only” and do not take into account efforts by the government to increase uptake of Pension Credit.
“We are taking significant steps to encourage those pensioners who are entitled to claim Pension Credit to do so with the success of our campaign boosting applications by 152%, and I will continue with this endeavour,” Kendall wrote.
She added, “We have also put in place extra financial support for the most vulnerable households including pensioners through the £150 Warm Home Discount to help with energy bills, the Cold Weather Payments and our extension of the Household Support Fund.”
Speaking at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said that pensioners will be better off under the Labour government because of other measures to support them.
Starmer said, “The figure for the increase in state pensions for next year under the triple lock, because we’ve stabilised the economy, is about £470.”
Poverty Line
Critics of the changes to Winter Fuel Payments have pressured the government to publish impact assessments on the plans over concerns thousands of pensioners will struggle to keep their homes warm because they are not eligible for Pension Credit but are still just below the poverty line.Responding to the figures, the chairwoman of the Work and Pensions Committee said: “While we’re grateful for the government’s transparency on this, there are some outstanding issues on the specific impact on older or disabled pensioners, and the figures say nothing of those floating just above the poverty line.”
Abrahams added: “We remain concerned by the impact that restricting winter fuel payments might have on poorer pensioners. We’ll be watching the issue closely.”
Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: “Finally the dam breaks and we get to see what Labour have known all along.
“Their Winter Fuel Payment cuts are going to plunge 100,000 pensioners into poverty in the next few years.
‘Not Clear’ How This Will Save Money
Kendall concluded in her letter: “Means-testing Winter Fuel Payments was not a decision this government wanted or expected to take. However, we were forced to take difficult decisions to balance the books in light of the £22 billion black hole we inherited.“Given the dire state of the public finances, it’s right that we target support to those who need it most while we continue our work to fix the foundations and stabilise the economy – which is the best way to support pensioners in the long term and is what has allowed us to deliver our commitment to the triple lock.”
The SSAC wrote to the DWP last month saying, “The direct savings from the significantly reduced eligibility for Winter Fuel Payments are partially offset by the cost of the rise in the number of claims to Pension Credit and the additional resources being deployed to process them.”
“It is not clear how the tension between the two goals of fiscal savings and increased take-up of Pension Credit is resolved within the plans for these regulations,” the SSAC said.
