Falling NDP Support
The Liberals’ steep fall in the polls last year has seen a sharp reversal since Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign in January, and with Mark Carney taking over as new Liberal leader and prime minister in March.After Carney won the Liberal leadership race and was sworn in as prime minister along with his cabinet on March 14, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said the exclusion of former Liberal House leader Karina Gould from the new cabinet sent “a message to progressive Liberals that there’s no place for you in this new Liberal party.” Gould had run in the Liberal leadership race with more progressive policies compared to the other candidates.
To be sure, Carney’s cabinet still maintains key cabinet figures with progressive bona fides, including former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, who has said in the House of Commons that he is a “proud socialist.”
But what has been driving NDP supporters to the Carney Liberals has been primarily the Trump factor. Even former NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has said if a party can’t form a government “that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it.”
The Trump Factor and Parties’ Messaging
Shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential election win in November and the start of his tariff threats against Canada, the Conservatives first focused their messaging on their plan to cut taxes and efforts to attract investment.But as Trump ramped up his rhetoric on tariffs against Canada and his “51st state” comments, the issue gained more importance and was reported as a priority in public opinion polls.
With the change in the political environment also came a change in the Conservatives’ messaging.
On Feb. 15, Poilievre held a “Canada First” rally in Ottawa that marked a change from previous rallies where the key slogan was “Axe the Tax,” referring to the Liberals’ carbon tax. During the rally he came out strongly against Trump’s 51st state comments.
“Never confuse our kindness with weakness,” Poilievre said.
But as the Liberal leadership race continued and Carney became prime minister, the polling trend showed a sustained increase in support for the Liberals, with their momentum even pushing them past the Conservatives in most polls.
From a policy standpoint, as the United States takes on a more protectionist approach, both the Conservatives and Liberals have been announcing measures meant to develop Canada’s economic capability and diversify trading markets. This includes both parties making it a priority to remove interprovincial trade barriers, announcing initiatives to build “energy corridors,” and establishing stronger trade relations with other allies.
But it’s on the anti-Trump posture that Poilievre is facing pressure to step up.
The March 27 Toronto Star article quotes Teneycke and other Conservative sources as saying they want to see Poilievre focus more on Trump.
On March 31, Poilievre dismissed calls for more forceful messaging on Trump, saying he will remain focused on the Liberal government’s performance on crime, drugs, housing costs, and affordability, and his pledge to “restore Canada’s promise.”
“With the caveat that there rarely are easy answers for a party whose electoral standing is slipping, there are clear signs in the data that by abandoning their campaign for change and focusing on countering Trump, the Conservatives might actually further worsen their standing with the electorate,” Coletto wrote.
He says factors contributing to this conclusion include the fact that some in the Conservative base like Trump, and ramping up the rhetoric against him may push those voters toward alternatives such as joining the People’s Party of Canada. As well, he writes, growing anxiety about Trump adds to the support for the Liberals, which Poilievre risks increasing if he stokes that fear by ramping up his comments on the U.S. president.
“If the Conservatives concede that this election is primarily about Trump, they let the Liberals dictate the terms of engagement on the ground where the Conservatives are at a serious disadvantage,” Coletto said.