Liberals and Conservatives in Tight Race as Canadians Head to Polls

Canadians are heading to the polls today to cast their vote for the party that will form the country’s 45th government.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (L) and Liberal Leader Mark Carney talk following the French-language federal leaders' debate at Maison de Radio-Canada in Montreal on April 16, 2025. Christopher Katsarov/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Canadians are heading to the polls today to cast their vote for the party that will form the country’s 45th government.

The vote comes after a month-long campaign that has developed into a tight race between Mark Carney’s Liberals and the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre.

Support for the two leading candidates has fluctuated within a range of five points, with the lead changing twice since March, according to Abacus Data.

Poilievre’s Conservatives, which held a commanding lead over the Liberals prior to the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s decision to resign in January, reached a low of 37 percent support a week ago according to Abacus Data but have since rebounded in the polls.

The Liberals have also seen their numbers fluctuate over the course of the campaign. The party peaked at 44 percent during the April 10-25 period and have since lost some ground to the Tories, although the Liberals maintain a slight lead as election day kicks off.

If Carney wins, the Liberals will return to Ottawa with a fourth consecutive mandate, a feat last achieved by former prime minister Louis St-Laurent when he won the Liberals a fourth term in 1949.

Also on the ballot are Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, the Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet, the Green Party co-led by Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault, and the People’s Party of Canada led by former Tory Maxime Bernier.

An all-time high of 7.3 million Canadians have already voted in the advance polls conducted over the Easter weekend. This figure exceeds the previous high of 5.8 million ballots during the 2021 federal election, according to Elections Canada.

If the polls on election day mimic advance polling numbers, turnout could far exceed that of the previous two federal elections.

Election Amid Tariffs

Today’s election comes at a time when U.S. tariffs and policies affecting Canada loom large, impacting election messaging and voter intentions.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made announcements regarding tariffs on Canadian goods, only to suspend and then re-announce them multiple times in recent months. Currently, the United States is imposing 25 percent tariffs on Canadian products not included in the North American free trade agreement, a 10 percent tariff on energy and potash, a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum, and a 25 percent tariff on auto parts. Canada has retaliated with its own tariffs on some U.S. goods.

Trump has also made comments that Canada should be a part of the United States. Trump took to social media on Canada’s election day to again insist the country would be better off as part of the United States.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.”

Carney has focused his election campaign on the response to the Trump presidency, saying the current situation presents the “greatest crisis of our lifetime.”

Carney recently confirmed Trump referred Canada as the “51st state” during a phone call between the two leaders in March despite originally telling reporters the president had “respected Canada’s sovereignty.” Carney said the conversation resulted in an agreement to hold negotiations on the trade and security relationship of the two countries until after the conclusion of the election.

Poilievre has also said that Canada’s sovereignty is not up for negotiation, but has focused his campaign mainly on change, saying the country needs a new government after nearly 10 years of Liberals being in power.

Today’s vote follows the deaths of 11 people in Vancouver after a vehicle drove down a crowded street, striking multiple people during a Filipino street festival. The tragedy loomed over the last days on the campaign trail and saw all the party leaders offer condolences to the victims’ families.

Polls will open today at 8:30 a.m. AST on the East Coast, until they close at 7 p.m. PST in Western Canada. All voting locations will be accessible for 12 hours, with operating hours varying by time zone.