Two Ridings That Marked Liberals’ Decline Last Year Are Red Again

Liberal Party candidate Leslie Church greets supporters at an election night event in Toronto on on June 24, 2024. The Canadian Press/Chris Young

The Liberal Party regained two of its long-standing strongholds during the April 28 federal election, following unforeseen defeats in both ridings during 2024 byelections.

The Toronto-St. Paul’s riding, won by Conservative candidate Don Stewart in a pivotal byelection last summer, has been reclaimed by the Liberal Party’s Leslie Church while the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun that the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé won in the fall has been snatched away by Liberal Claude Guay.

Church, a lawyer and former aide to Chrystia Freeland, ran away with the downtown Toronto riding, winning nearly 62 percent of the vote in the April 28 election. Stewart placed a distant second with 33 percent.

The result was a distinct turnaround from the Liberals’ unexpected loss of the long-time stronghold last June when Stewart bested Church, winning with 42 percent of the vote compared to her 40 percent. The riding had been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years before the Tory byelection win, and cast doubts on the party’s future electability under then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

The Liberal loss to the Bloc Québécois in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun last September came after a tight three-way race between the two parties and the NDP. The Bloc’s Sauvé won with 28 percent of the vote over the Liberals’ Laura Palestini who received a 27.2 percent vote share and the NDP’s Craig Sauvé who garnered 26 percent of votes.

The riding had previously been held by former Justice Minister and Liberal MP David Lametti since 2015.

The losses took place during a period of declining Liberal popularity and increasing doubts by the caucus about Trudeau’s leadership. Not long after that, rumblings of discontent erupted from within the party and in October a number of Liberal MPs banded together in an attempt to convince Trudeau to step down.

Calls for Trudeau’s departure intensified after former deputy prime minister and finance minister Freeland stepped down from cabinet on Dec. 16, 2024, after posting a resignation letter on social media that criticized Trudeau’s policies. Those calls grew louder over the Christmas break, leading Trudeau to announce his resignation on Jan. 6.

That resignation became official when former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney was elected as the new Liberal Leader in March and was later sworn in as prime minister.

Carney campaigned heavily on responding to U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump and his remarks about wanting Canada to be a part of the United States. Carney won a minority government according to preliminary results, giving the Liberals 168 ridings compared to the Conservatives’ 144.

Riding Flips

Two of the biggest riding flips in Canada were those that saw Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh lose their seats.

Singh took third place in his B.C. riding of Burnaby Central, garnering just 18.1 percent of the popular vote behind the Conservatives’ James Yan at 38.7 percent and the Liberals’ Wade Chang at 42.1 percent.

Singh has announced he will step down as party leader.

Poilievre lost his Ottawa-area Carleton riding to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy who nabbed 50.6 percent of the popular vote compared to the Tory leader’s 46.1 percent. He had held the seat since 2004.

Poilievre has pledged to stay on as Conservative leader, citing the Tories’ success in significantly increasing its seat count. The party has gained 25 seats in the House of Commons, according to preliminary results.

One of those seats was in the Ontario riding of York Centre where Roman Baber defeated Mental Health and Addictions Minister Ya'ara Saks by a wide margin. Baber took nearly 55 percent of the vote compared to Saks at 42.7 percent.

Baber was elected MPP for York Centre in 2018 before being ousted from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government three years later over his criticism of COVID-19 measures. Baber was removed the party in 2021 after he wrote an open letter to Ford urging him to end the province’s lockdowns and restrictions.

Markham-Unionville was the site of another Tory victory where Michael Ma defeated Peter Yuen, the candidate brought in to replace Paul Chiang after the Ontario MP dropped out of the federal race.

Chiang faced scrutiny after proposing in January that his then-rival Joe Tay, the Tory candidate for Markham-Unionville, be handed over to the Chinese consulate so the bounty placed on him by Hong Kong authorities could be collected. The comments stirred controversy after resurfacing last month. Though Carney opted not to oust him, Chiang resigned after the RCMP said it was investigating the comments.

Two Winnipeg seats are also changing hands as Liberal candidate Doug Eyolfson has reclaimed Winnipeg West from Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz, while Conservative Colin Reynolds has secured Elmwood-Transcona from the recently elected NDP MP Leila Dance.

Dance had won the seat, a longtime NDP stronghold, in a 2024 byelection after former MP Daniel Blaikie announced his resignation in March to work as a special adviser to Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew.

Dance had beat out Reynolds last September, winning 48 percent of the popular vote. This time, however, Reynolds secured nearly 42 percent support compared to Dance’s 34.5 percent.

In Winnipeg West, Eyolfson nabbed 54.4 percent of the popular vote while Morantz garnered just shy of 41 percent.