Just a few days into 2024, North Korea intensively fired artillery shells into nearby South Korean waters, intensifying tensions on the Korean Peninsula. To cope with the current crisis, according to a military expert, South Korea needs to strengthen its power and deepen its ties with its allies.
On Dec. 30, 2023, Kim Jong Un said in the ruling party’s congress that he would redefine the position on North-South relations and unification policy, advocating that the relationship between the two Koreas is “no longer a kinship or homogeneous relationship but has completely become a relationship between two hostile countries, two belligerents at war.”
Echoing his robust stance, North Korea has fired at least 350 artillery shells north of Yeonpyeong Island for three consecutive days since Jan. 5, all falling north of the Maritime Northern Limited Line (NLL).
Kim Jong Un’s sister, deputy minister of Central Committee Kim Yo Jong, responded to the South’s allegations in a televised speech, denying artillery shell firings and saying that it was just a deception tactic that simulated an artillery attack with the detonation of explosives.
This tactic was just used to test the South Korean military’s detection capabilities, she said, taunting the South Korean that it would be ten times better to have dogs with developed senses of hearing and smell working as security guards.
On the same day, North Korea’s state-run TV broadcast the speech of the powerful sister and also showed footage of many soldiers digging pits on the ground in the mountains to bury explosives and perform detonation operations.
Pyongyang: Tough on Seoul, Soft on the US and Japan
“Kim Yo Jong has been making provocative statements since last year that have stirred up divisions in the Korean Peninsula,” said Kim Taewoo, a professor in Konyang University’s Department of Military Affairs.Mr. Kim was also a former director of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
In an interview with The Epoch Times, he pointed out that Kim Yo Jong’s divisive remarks included a statement that the situation on the peninsula was precarious, that war could break out at any time, and that instability and insecurity had become a part of daily life in Korea due to South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol’s treatment of North Korean government and military as the main enemy that should be eliminated. She had even mocked the South Korean president, claiming that former President Moon Jae-in had known better how to ensure the country’s security.
These deliberately provocative rants are intended to polarize public opinion in South Korea, Mr. Kim said.
He expressed concern about the political, philosophical, and regional divisions in Korea, as well as the lack of national security awareness. “This is very dangerous because North Korea may use these as an opportunity for further provocation.”
The deteriorating tensions on the Korean Peninsula have also promoted polarization of public opinion in South Korea. “There are two schools of thought regarding North Korea: one suggests that we should avoid irritating them and instead be kind and caring towards them. The other means that even if we are kind and caring towards them, they will still develop nuclear weapons and engage in provocations, gradually weakening, and destroying South Korea.”
Nevertheless, Mr. Kim said North Korea’s escalating instigations sought to influence this year’s parliamentary elections in South Korea.
To further highlight its hostile attitude towards South Korea internationally, North Korea has started to warm up to Japan and the United States. For instance, Kim Jong Un’s attitude towards the United States in the meeting of the Workers’ Party held on Dec. 30 last year was far less demanding than that towards South Korea, more inclined to neutrality. Meanwhile, the top ruler of North Korea addressed Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as “Your Excellency” when he sent him a condolence message for the earthquake on Jan. 5.
North Korea’s Move Is No Accident
Mr. Kim said he was not surprised by Pyongyang’s sudden development this January. “What North Korea will do this year was already well foreseen,” he said, indicating late last year, North Korea held the ninth plenary session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party, on which Kim Jong Un characterized the two Koreas as hostile and said they could never be reunited.“This foreshadows provocations and tensions would be created against South Korea,” he said.
From 9 to 11 a.m. on Jan. 5, North Korea suddenly fired more than 200 artillery shells into the Yellow Sea, all of which landed in the waters near Baekryong Island in the maritime Northern Limited Line (NLL) and north of Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea. Despite causing no damage, those areas are marine buffer zones where shelling is prohibited under the North-South military agreement.
“This is an act of provocation that escalates tension and threatens peace on the Korean peninsula,” South Korea’s Defence Minister Shin Won-sik said in a statement on Jan. 5.
The South Korean government issued evacuation orders, urging residents of the Baekryong and Yeonpyeong islands to move to evacuation shelters. The passenger ships linking the islands to the mainland were also suspended.
Responding to the provocations, South Korean troops embarked on the two islands and held an artillery drill.
A spokesman for the U.S. Department of State said on Jan. 5, condemned North Korea’s firing of artillery shells a “provocative act,” and called on Pyongyang to act with “restraint and not to lead to geographic instability” and engage in a dialogue to ease the tense situation.
Breakup of Pyongyang Declaration
Back on Sept. 21, 2018, the heads of the two Koreas signed the “Pyongyang Joint Declaration of September 2018,” which includes close cooperation to prevent sudden armed conflict, normalization of tourism, and the permanent dismantling of North Korea’s Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch platform.Meanwhile, both sides’ national defense ministers signed a North-South military contract, which included easing military tensions, setting up a demilitarized zone (DMZ), removing surveillance posts in the DMZ, and setting up a no-fly area over the airspace near the military boundary. According to this, in the North Korean Peninsula, the eastern part of the national border is a maximum of 40 kilometers (24.8 miles), and the western part is a maximum of 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) within the no-fly zone.
However, in November 2023, North Korea announced that it was abandoning the military contract, and it restarted the installation of surveillance posts, added new reinforced concrete pillars, and planted a large number of landmines around the roads leading from the DMZ to South Korea.
This time, in Mr. Kim’s view, North Korea’s shelling into the maritime buffer zone is also a debut for its cancellation of the 2018 contract.
The U.S.-led side is busy with two wars and has been relatively weak on the Korean Peninsula, he said.
“This has led the Chinese Communist Party and North Korea to surmise that the current new Cold War situation is favorable for them and that this is an opportunity,” he added.
“North Korea believes that the United States is exhausted. Therefore, it dares to provoke and hold South Korea at bay and start a war if necessary,” Mr. Kim said, adding that since Kim Jong Un’s unsuccessful talks with Trump in Vietnam in February 2019, North Korea has stepped up its aggressive moves against the South’s threats and the international community.
In October 2020, Pyongyang made public its latest ballistic missile.
On Jan. 14, 2021, North Korea displayed a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), Pukguksong-5, which state news agency KCNA boasted calling it “the world’s most powerful weapon.”
In October 2022, Pyongyang fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. That year, North Korea fired at least 92 ballistic missiles and other missiles, more than any other year.
In 2023, North Korea launched a total of 25 missiles, including five intercontinental missiles, three satellites using ballistic missile technology, and a suspected successful launch of a reconnaissance satellite.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense estimates that North Korea may also launch various missiles and satellites in 2024. In addition, North Korea has strengthened its alliance with Russia by obtaining Russian technical support for satellite launches and is providing Russia with a large number of artillery shells and other weapons.
South Korea: Improve Itself, Strengthen Ties With Allies
On Dec. 28, 2023, during an inspection of a military post in Gyeonggi Province, Mr. Yoon instructed his troops to respond promptly and decently if North Korea provoked them.“I urge you to immediately and firmly crush the enemy’s will for a provocation on the spot,” the president told his troops.
According to Mr. Kim, the Yoon and Biden administrations issued the Washington Declaration and Camp David Declaration last year, which strengthened the alliance between the two countries, and that was “the right choice and the inevitable choice for South Korea.”
