Reform UK Just 4 Points Behind Tories: Poll

Reform UK leader Richard Tice speaks at a press conference in London on Jan. 4, 2023. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Reform UK is just four points behind the Conservative Party, according to the latest polling from YouGov.

The YouGov/Times voting intention poll published on Thursday found that the Conservatives were at just 19 percent while Reform UK was at 15 percent, which the pollster described as the party’s “highest vote share ever.”

The data, collected between March 19 and 20, found Labour continues to lead in the polls at 44 percent. The Liberal Democrats are on 9 percent, and the Green Party on 8 percent. Reform UK is now the third most-supported party in the country.

“Even among the oldest Britons, who have been the Conservatives’ biggest bastion of support in recent years, only 32% say they intend to vote Tory – 26% intend to back Reform UK, while 23% say they will vote Labour,” YouGov said.

1 in 5 2019 Tory Voters Back Reform UK

Meanwhile, a Daily Express poll conducted by Techne UK found that more than one in five (21 percent) of Conservative voters from the 2019 election now back Reform UK.

Techne UK Chief Executive Michela Morizzo told the Express: “This is a quite staggering level of direct ‘switchers’ from Conservatives to Reform UK.

“As such all eyes will no doubt be on Nigel Farage and his upcoming decisions on where to further place his emphasis and support - very difficult times for the Conservatives indeed.”

Mr. Farage formerly led Reform UK and is the party’s honorary president.

Conservative Mayoral Candidate Switches to Reform UK

The polling comes after the Conservative candidate for mayor of Greater Manchester, Dan Baker, defected to Reform UK.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr. Barker said the Conservatives have abandoned the north of England, opting instead to focus on constituencies in the south under threat from the Liberal Democrats.

“I think, in truth, they’ve given up on Greater Manchester and the north of England,” Mr. Baker said.

“You can see that from inside the party, what they are really doing is trying to protect the blue wall in the south east and the south west because they fear that the Liberal Democrats are going to annihilate them,” he added.

Mr. Barker will challenge the current mayor, Labour’s Andy Burnham, in May.

Lee Anderson

On March 11,  Lee Anderson MP announced he had joined Reform UK. The Conservatives had suspended the former deputy party leader for remarks he had made about the “Islamification” of London.

Addressing a press conference after joining Reform, he said, “I will start by saying I want my country back.”

Mr. Anderson continued: “Over the last year or so I’ve had to do a lot of soul searching on my political journey.

“I don’t expect much in politics other than to be able to speak my mind.”

“My opinions are not controversial. They are shared by millions of people up and down the country.”

“It is no secret that I’ve been talking to my friends in Reform for a while. And Reform UK has offered me the chance to speak out in Parliament on behalf of millions of people up and down the country who feel that they’re not being listened to,” he said.

Candidates Dropped

This week has seen other changes in candidates for the party, with Reform dropping a number of candidates following revelations concerning remarks they had made online.

Reform has dropped Ginny Ball, who was formerly standing in Rutland and Stamford; Benjamin Dade, formerly standing in Swindon South; and Roger Hoe, formerly standing in Beverley and Holderness.

A Reform UK spokesperson told The Guardian on Thursday, in relation to the dropping of Mr. Dade: “His comments were brought to our attention, and we acted. Other parties might learn from this.”

“Clearly our vetting process is now taking place in public and everyone is now being re-vetted,” the spokesperson added.

Reform UK leader Richard Tice has ruled out standing aside candidates to avoid splitting the Leave vote in some consistencies, as the party did in 2019 when under the name The Brexit Party.

The Brexit Party stood down candidates to help then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson gain the majority needed to get his deal to leave the European Union passed in the House of Commons.

PA Media contributed to this report.