Reform UK Beating Conservatives Among Working Class Voters, Poll Finds

Reform UK leader Richard Tice speaking at a press conference to outline the party's plans, on Jan. 3, 2024. PA Media

Reform UK is beating the Conservative Party among working class voters and has hit a record high in Westminster polling intentions, a survey has found.

According to the latest YouGov/Times poll published on Thursday, Reform UK has 23 percent of the support from working class voters, compared with 22 percent who back the Conservatives.

Among the middle class, the gap is far wider, with only 11 percent backing Reform UK compared with 21 percent who support the Tories.

Both parties are far behind Labour, with 34 percent of the working class and 43 percent of the middle class supporting the party led by Sir Keir Starmer.

Record-High Support

YouGov conducted the research of 2,061 adults in Britain between March 26 and 27. It shows Reform UK reaching record-high support among voters for the second week in a row.

Reform UK now has the backing of 16 percent of voters, placing them in third behind the Conservatives who are on 21 percent. Meanwhile, Labour has maintained a significant lead, placed first with 40 percent of the vote.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 10 percent and the Greens are on 8 percent.

However, most respondents (47 percent) are unsure of who would make the best prime minister, with 31 percent opting for Sir Keir and only 18 percent for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Polling last week, also by YouGov, put Reform UK—formerly the Brexit Party and founded by Nigel Farage—just four points behind the Tories, at 15 percent and 19 percent respectively.

1 in 5 2019 Tory Voters Back Reform UK

Another poll, conducted by Techne UK for the Daily Express, last week found that more than one in five (21 percent) of 2019 Tory voters now back Reform UK.

“This is a quite staggering level of direct ‘switchers’ from Conservatives to Reform UK,” Techne UK Chief Executive Michela Morizzo remarked.

This month has seen high-profile defections from the Conservative Party to Reform UK, including MP Lee Anderson who was suspended by the Conservatives for remarks he made about the “Islamification” of London.

“It is no secret that I’ve been talking to my friends in Reform for a while. And Reform UK has offered me the chance to speak out in Parliament on behalf of millions of people up and down the country who feel that they’re not being listened to,” he said at a press conference after joining Reform.

Conservatives Abandoned the North of England

Last week, Tory candidate for mayor of Greater Manchester, Dan Baker, switched to the Richard Tice-led party because he said that the Conservatives had “given up” on the north of England.

“I think, in truth, they’ve given up on Greater Manchester and the north of England,” Mr. Baker said.

He said the Tories had opted instead to focus on constituencies in the south which are under threat from the Liberal Democrats.

Former Conservative Deputy Chairman Lee Anderson (L) and leader of Reform UK Richard Tice (R) answer questions following a press conference to announce his defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK, in London, on March 11, 2024. Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images

Under the leadership of Boris Johnson and with the promise of delivering Brexit, the Conservatives had managed to gain a swathe of seats in the industrial heartlands of the Midlands and North—collectively called the “Red Wall” because they traditionally voted Labour—in the 2019 General Election.

In January, a poll indicated that the Conservatives face a wipeout reminiscent of the 1997 General Election, prompting former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost to remark that the gains of those Red Wall seats were disappearing.

Ministers Resign from Sunak’s Government

This week, two ministers resigned from the government, triggering a mini Cabinet reshuffle.

Robert Halfon resigned as minister of state for skills, apprenticeships, and higher education on Tuesday, being replaced by Luke Hall.

Also on Tuesday, James Heappey stood down as armed forces minister and was replaced by Leo Docherty.

Both Mr. Halfon and Mr. Heappey are standing down at the next election.

Richard Tice (R) listens as Nigel Farage speaks during the launch of the Brexit Party at BG Penny & Co, in Coventry, England, on April 12, 2019. Matthew Lewis/Getty Images

Their intention to leave the Commons brings the number of Conservative MPs standing down at the next General Election to 63, which includes a number of prominent Tories such as former Prime Minister Theresa May, former Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, and former Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

Across the House of Commons, 99 MPs have announced their intention to stand down.

Comparative to other election cycles, this is not a significantly higher number. According to a House of Commons research briefing, 74 MPs did not stand for reelection in 2019. An average of 87 MPs stood down at general elections between 1979 and 2010.

The last possible date for an election is Jan. 28, 2025.