The Great Barrier Reef could disappear, according to a University of Melbourne academic.
Benjamin Henley led research into the “Highest Ocean Heat in Four Centuries Places Great Barrier Reef in Danger” report for the university, that maps 400 years of research into summer sea temperatures in the Coral Sea.
The report claims to show proof of recent hot temperatures on earth contributing to mass coral bleaching events.
For the analysis, Henley and his team reconstructed sea surface temperature data from 1618 through to 1995 by using coral skeleton samples from the Coral Sea.
Data from the samples was then married up with sea temperature records from 1900 to 2024.
The team then analysed climate model simulations of sea surface temperatures with and without climate change.
Their conclusion was that human-caused climate change was to blame for rising temperatures in the region.
The report claims mass bleaching events have coincided with five of the six hottest years in the 400 years measured in the course of the study.
The years 2017, 2020, and 2024 brought the warmest recorded temperatures in the Coral Sea, according to the study, with 2024 being the absolute hottest.
“When I plotted the 2024 data point, I had to triple check my calculations,” Henley said in a statement.
“It was off the charts, far above the previous record high in 2017. I could almost not believe it. It is a tragic, but near-inevitable consequence, that mass coral bleaching has occurred yet again this year.”
Henley said he believed the Great Barrier Reef would eventually disappear without intervention.
“It’s the inevitability of the impacts on the reef in the coming years that really gets to me,” he said.
“In the absence of rapid, coordinated and ambitious global action to combat climate change, we will likely witness the demise of one of Earth’s most spectacular natural wonders.”
Professor Helen McGregor from Environmental Futures, and a co-author of the study, said urgent action was needed to prevent devastation of one of the world’s most important ecosystems.
“The Great Barrier Reef is facing catastrophe if anthropogenic climate change is not immediately addressed,” she said in a statement.
“The very corals that have lived for hundreds of years and that gave us the data for our study are themselves under serious threat.”
Henley said there needed to be both national and international attention placed on reaching net zero carbon emissions.
“Without urgent intervention, our iconic Great Barrier Reef is at risk of near-annual beaching from these high ocean temperatures,” he said.
UNESCO Declines Danger Ranking
It comes after UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee did not declare the Great Barrier Reef as being in danger.The decision, which was made at the end of July, drew concern from those involved in the University of Melbourne study.
The 46th session of the World Heritage Committee, which was hosted in India, agreed to stick with the original UNESCO decision on the reef made in February.
Reef Researcher Queries Data
Reef researcher Peter Ridd questioned the data in the study, which he said showed the Great Barrier Reef was “just as hot in the 1700s.”“Their data shows that the Coral Sea—basically Melanesia—is the hottest in 400 years, but not the Great Barrier Reef,” Ridd told The Epoch Times.
Ridd responded to a post made to X by independent MP David Pocock, who shared results of the study and called on the government to act.
“We are on track to lose the Great Barrier Reef,” Pocock posted on social media.
“Researched published in the journal ‘Nature’ has found that 2024 is the hottest year in the last 400 years.
“The government must treat research from our leading scientists with the urgency it deserves.”
Ridd said Pocock was spreading “fake news.”
“The Great Barrier Reef has been confirmed by the Australian Institute of Marine Science to record amounts of coral in 2024,” he said.
“In fact, more coral in all of the last three years than in any of the previous 35 since records began.”
