IN-DEPTH: North Korea’s Actions in January Further Escalate Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

A TV screen shows a file image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Jan. 16, 2024. Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo

In January, North Korea strengthened its ties with Russia, conducted multiple missile launches, and revised its constitution to designate South Korea as its top enemy state. Experts say the actions significantly escalated the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

The Guardian reported on Jan. 22 that the UK government had submitted a report to a panel of UN experts on sanctions against North Korea. Satellite images provided by the UK showed North Korean cargo shipments to Russia.

The UK report followed a U.S. announcement on Jan. 4 that North Korean-made KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles were found to have been used on the Ukrainian battlefield.

On Jan. 21, North Korea announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin would soon visit Pyongyang. The regime emphasized that the Russian leader’s visit would be his second in 24 years and that the two sides would cooperate closely on the issues surrounding the Korean peninsula.

North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui began a three-day visit to Russia on Jan. 15, according to North Korean state media KCNA. During the visit, Mr. Choe exchanged views with Mr. Putin on the situation in the Korean peninsula, and they agreed to strengthen cooperation between the two allies as “the provocative behavior of the United States and its allied forces has brought about negative impacts on regional peace,” the report said.

KCNA reported that during the visit, the Russian president expressed his willingness to visit Pyongyang soon. Mr. Putin thanked North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for the invitation to visit, KCNA said.

As Mr. Choe began his visit to Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia hoped a Putin visit to North Korea, at Mr. Kim’s invitation, would take place “in the foreseeable future,” but he said no date had yet been agreed.

Meanwhile, North Korea began the year with a barrage of shells in the Yellow Sea, followed by multiple missile launches throughout the month.

Condemning North Korean Missile Launches

North Korea fired several cruise missiles off its east coast on Sunday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

The launches came just days after North Korean state media reported that the country had conducted its first flight test of a new cruise missile, the Pulhwasal-3-31. A day prior, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the communist regime had fired multiple cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea, adding that details were being analyzed by South Korean and U.S. foreign intelligence agencies.

The launch followed North Korea’s claim on Jan. 19 that it had tested an underwater nuclear attack drone in the Sea of Japan.

In response to that claim, a U.S. State Department spokesman said the United States demanded that North Korea cease its military provocations and resume diplomatic dialogue to resolve the differences. He condemned North Korea’s continued nuclear and ballistic missile development, which has repeatedly violated UN resolutions, and emphasized that the United States will continue to work closely with allies, such as Japan and South Korea, to maintain the U.S. military’s deterrent power.

At a press briefing on Jan. 19, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he could not confirm whether North Korea had conducted an actual test. However, he said that the claims underscored “the continued provocations by Kim Jong Un and his regime in Pyongyang.” He criticized North Korea’s pursuit of advanced military capabilities in order “to threaten their neighbors and to threaten the region.”

On Jan. 18, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting over North Korea’s launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the Sea of Japan on Jan. 14. The United States, European Union, and Japan criticized North Korea’s launch as a violation of the UN Security Council’s resolution.

A photo provided by the North Korean regime shows what it called a flight test of a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile on Jan. 14, 2024. Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP

In response, North Korea’s foreign ministry said the United States and South Korea “should be held responsible for pushing the Korean peninsula and its neighboring regions into the eve of conflict.”

At the meeting, South Korea urged the Security Council to “break the silence” over North Korea’s escalating behavior. China and Russia, both permanent members of the council, have harbored North Korea in the Security Council, blocking efforts to increase sanctions over recent weapons tests.

U.S.-based Chinese military analyst Stephen Xia told The Epoch Times: “North Korea has always shown hostility toward South Korea, especially after [South Korean President] Yoon Suk Yeol came to power. As the U.S.–South Korea relationship becomes closer, this hostility has become more aggressive. North Korea threatens its rivals with nuclear weapons, and its national policy is to develop nuclear weapons to gain a sense of existence and ‘security.’ Therefore, any weapons test by North Korea, including this type of nuclear-capable drone, is its established policy.”

Mr. Xia believes that it is important for the United States and South Korea to fully demonstrate their ability to end Kim Jong-un’s regime, rather than just talking about potential military confrontation, citing the two countries’ overwhelming advantage in conventional warfare capabilities.

Abandoning ‘Peaceful Reunification’

On Jan. 15, the same day that North Korea announced the successful launch of its IRBM, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), convened. At the meeting, Mr. Kim said that North Korea would amend its constitution to explicitly state that South Korea is the “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”

On Jan. 6, North Korea announced that it would abolish three of the regime’s government ministries, including the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, which was tasked with dialogue and exchanges with South Korea in the past.

Mr. Kim said it was necessary to enshrine in the constitution the complete annexation of South Korea and its incorporation into North Korea’s territory. Abandoning the regime’s previous policy of seeking reunification with South Korea, he designated South Korea as North Korea’s most hostile enemy and called for terms such as “peaceful unification” and “national unity,” to be abolished from North Korean literature.

At the same time, the North Korean leader abolished the maritime “Northern Limit Line” (NLL) with South Korea and warned that “if South Korea violates North Korea’s territorial waters, it will be regarded as an act of provoking war.” Meanwhile, North Korea has been repeatedly launching artillery shells waters near the NLL, causing tensions in the region to rise.

At the end of 2023, Mr. Kim said that he would abandon his policy of “peaceful reunification” with South Korea and would intensify pressure on South Korea in the future. He also emphasized the need to mobilize all military power, including nuclear weapons, against the enemy. North Korea has already approved a national defense budget for this year, which accounts for 15.9 percent of GDP.

On Jan. 16, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said in a cabinet meeting that North Korea’s positioning of North and South Korean relations as a “hostile” and “belligerent” relationship shows the regime’s “anti-national and anti-historical nature.”

In response to North Korea’s abandonment of the NLL, Mr. Yoon refuted the statement, saying that it was “a provocative act.” He also condemned North Korea’s activities such as launching ballistic missiles and shelling near the demarcation line, and he warned that North Korea will be punished for the belligerent acts.

The Most Dangerous Time in 70 Years

38 North, a website of the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, recently warned that Mr. Kim’s latest move could go beyond his usual bluffing.

In a Jan. 11 article entitled “Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War,” Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote that the security situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. They believe that Mr. Kim has made a strategic decision to go to war.

Mr. Carlin is a visiting fellow at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and former chief of the Northeast Asia Division for the U.S. Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Mr. Hecker is an adjunct professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and an expert on nuclear weapons.

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950,” the authors wrote.“That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war.”

Regarding the reasons for this change, the article suggests that North Korea has abandoned its long-standing goal of normalizing relations with the United States, believing that the strategy had “irrevocably failed.”

As a major reason for that shift in thinking, the article pointed to the failed Hanoi summit between the North Korean leader and former President Donald Trump in 2019. The two sides offered differing explanations of what caused the summit to fail. The United States said that talks collapsed because North Korea would not firmly commit to eliminating its nuclear arsenal while insisting that all U.S. sanctions be lifted. Mr. Kim, on his part, insisted that he had only asked for partial sanctions relief in exchange for shutting down North Korea’s main nuclear complex.

Five years later, the article noted, North Korea has deepened its cooperative relationship with Russia, by supplying Russia with weapons in particular. The regime’s view that “global tides were running in its favor” may have influenced North Korea’s actions, it said.

Reuters contributed to this report.