While Taiwan’s presidential election has reinforced the self-ruled island’s democratic politics, it has also raised anticipation of a strong response from China. In the dynamic geopolitical context of the Indo-Pacific, experts say the United States will hold a greater strategic relevance. Its active leadership in the region will be vital to deterring China post-election.
President-elect Lai Ching-te now awaits his May inauguration. The next three months is a crucial period, Cleo Paskal, a non-resident senior fellow with the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Epoch Times.
“The holding of breath continues. Had a pro-Beijing candidate won, it might have meant a lowering of concern over kinetic action—a PRC military invasion of Taiwan, for example. Now, the ‘kinetic’ uncertainty continues,” said Ms. Paskal.
China’s pre-election intimidation tactics against Taiwanese voters were aggressive. Repeated violations of Taiwanese airspace, including reports of spy balloons over the Taiwan strait, misinformation campaigns on Taiwanese social media, and conspiracy theories were rampant. Spy balloons continue to be reported after the elections, with the latest report of six balloons over the Taiwan Strait coming on Jan. 21.
Shen Ming-Shih is the Director of the National Security Research Division, and Acting Deputy Chief Executive Officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan. He told The Epoch Times in an email that immediately after the elections, China adopted an observant attitude, but is now prepared for various strong responses.
The Taiwan expert foresees tough challenges for Mr. Lai. Because the president-elect’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) failed to secure an absolute majority in the 113-seat Taiwanese Congress, he will very likely face challenges and more scrutiny as he seeks to secure support for his policies. It is expected that these challenges and scrutiny will be aggressively pushed by the United Front Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
“Taiwan’s opposition party has gained a majority in the Congress. This will strengthen its [China’s] United Front against Taiwan’s Congress,” said Mr. Shen.
Although he believes that the CCP will not use large-scale exercises and military training to oppress Taiwan, he feels it will take some tough measures to put pressure on the new administration. As part of its 2024 Taiwan strategy, Beijing will also try to win over young Taiwanese and further cultivate an opposition party that may win in future elections.
Ms. Paskal said that China’s 2024 Taiwan strategy depends upon several factors, including the outcome of the 2024 elections in the United States.
“It will certainly continue to try to isolate Taiwan—it is working hard to flip Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, and Palau from Taipei to Beijing— as well as test (and attempt to degrade) U.S. resolve militarily, and fracture allies (such as [trying] to drive a wedge between India and the U.S.),” she said.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
From China’s perspective, the biggest threat posed by the outcome of the recent elections is not Mr. Lai’s victory, but the victory of Taiwan’s larger democratic institutions. Experts told The Epoch Times that these institutions will likely be China’s main target in 2024.Post-election, Ms. Paskal said, whether the Chinese regime chooses a kinetic or non-kinetic approach against Taiwan, its actual aim is to destroy the democratic mindset of Taiwanese society. Further, it hopes to use its footprints on the island to further its expansionist agenda in the wider Indo-Pacific.
“Make no mistake, in either scenario, [China] is focused on the same outcome: the destruction of a democratic Taiwan, a subjugation of its people and economy to the will of the CCP, and the ability to use Taiwan as a power projection point against Beijing’s next targets, for example, Japan,” she said.
Mr. Shen said the development of Taiwan’s democratic politics has already been affirmed by other regional and global democratic countries, and this geopolitical democratic alliance is set to be strengthened further.
“Regional countries have temporarily put aside their concerns about Taiwan moving closer toward China,” he said. “The Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, Japan, Australia, and other countries will also continue without major changes.”
Mr. Shen opines that within emerging geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan’s biggest strength lies in its focus on reform and development. To counter China, Taiwan needs to further strengthen its technological and economic development and also master emerging trends in the international supply chain.
“Strengthen national defense reform and training to enhance military combat effectiveness. Combine with democratic alliance countries to create deterrent forces and strengthen anti-United Front actions and counter China’s cognitive war,” he advised.
US Strategy
Taiwan will continue to need U.S. support to counter Chinese attempts to breach its sovereignty and to further gain strategic and economic resilience, according to the analysts who spoke with The Epoch Times.“There should be a mass, coordinated acknowledgment of reality—that Taiwan is a country. And it should be treated like the normal country it is—joint military exercises, invitations to international meetings, etc.,” Ms. Paskal said, when asked what the QUAD nations—the United States, India, Australia, and Japan—could do together to support the new Taiwanese government against Chinese aggression.
China’s stated goal to take over Taiwan “should be called what it is as well, an attempt at forced colonization,” she added.
In this context, it is important that the QUAD nations continue to issue statements emphasizing the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and oppose China’s unilateral changes to the status quo.
Enhanced military cooperation between the QUAD countries will further deter China’s expansionist agendas in the region, Mr. Shen believes. He wants Taiwan to be incorporated into the QUAD’s military security cooperation and multinational training mechanism.
“Led by the United States, promotion of military cooperation with China’s neighboring countries” can be a major deterrent to China, he said.
