Will Trump Affect How Australians Vote?

One analyst says Trump is a bogeyman for the Left, a role model for the Right—but is not a decider for most.

US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters outside the White House in Washington, DC, on April 23, 2025. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

Is there a third man in Australia’s 2025 election campaign?

The answer depends entirely on who you ask.

Pollsters will quote any number of concerning figures around the impact U.S. President Donald Trump—and his apparent overshadowing of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton—has in the election race for Australia’s next leader.

In recent weeks, one major Sydney-based publication claimed 33 percent of voters were less likely to vote for Dutton because of their views around Trump and how they believe he would navigate Australia’s relationship with its close ally.

On current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the statistic is around 21 percent of voters who disapprove of his potential relationship with the U.S. president.

Trump Not a Big Factor: Think Tank

Graham Young, the executive director of the Australian Institute of Progress, said the focus on Trump was distracting from domestic issues—but not so much to be impacting voting.

“I think the Trump factor is that he sucks the oxygen out of the domestic political debate because people are distracted by what is happening in the USA and what this might mean for the world, plus his policies have caused a share market fluctuation,” he told The Epoch Times.

“But Trump is not a big factor for most voters. He is a bogeyman who matters to strongly committed Labor and Greens voters, and to some strongly committed Coalition and nationalist parties he is someone who should be emulated.

“Both those groups spend much more time than most reading and thinking about politics.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton shake hands ahead of the second leaders' debate of the 2025 federal election campaign at the ABC Studios in Parramatta, Sydney, Australia, on April 16, 2025. AAP Image/Pool

Leveraging the ‘Culture Wars?’

The campaign so far has seen both major parties attempt to distance themselves from the U.S. president amid concerns about his public perception—driven heavily by local media reporting.

In fact, in multiple elections, the right-side of politics has often been accused of importing U.S.-style politics or culture wars into the country.

For example, in last year’s Queensland state election, the Liberal National Party was accused of potentially cutting abortion services if it won power, while the Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin has often been labelled as “hard right.”

Yet Young said federally, Labor had engaged in a scare campaign focused on local issues, including concerns that Dutton would cut Medicare and health funding to support the Coalition’s $600 billion pledge to develop civilian nuclear power.

“Health is similar to abortion in terms of its emotional appeal, and it is a brazen lie, from the cost of the reactors, through to the idea that it will be met out of cuts to services rather than through the generation of electricity,” he said.

Tougher Questions Needed

Young was critical of the coverage of the campaign, which has deviated from cost of living.

“If I have criticism of the media coverage it is that they are not asking the tough questions of either leader, like, ‘How much debt is too much debt?’ or ‘When do you expect to get the budget back into balance?’ or  ‘You say we live in time of unprecedented international risk, but apart from AUKUS where the equipment will arrive in 10 years’ time, what do you plan to do?’

“Productivity is stagnant or in decline, what are you going to do to fix it?” he said.

Cost of Living Still the Primary Driver

“It was always cost of living,” Griffith University politics expert Paul Williams told The Epoch Times, when asked what the number one factor was right now in the election.

But Williams says the Liberal Party drifted too much into “culture wars” issues, which was not going to resonate as much with disinterested voters or the wider public who were dealing with higher prices.

“Lack of focus cost him dearly,” he said.

Williams also said backing down from signature policies was damaging the Liberal Party’s campaigns, noting the uncertainty around the Coalition’s “work from home” policy, and the sudden change in enthusiasm for nuclear.

Young had similar views adding that the backdown on forcing Canberra-based public servants to return to the office was needless.

“In my polling ‘work from home’ was mentioned by three or four respondents, all women, and all rusted-on Labor or Greens. Three were teachers,” Young noted.

“I don’t think it is a huge factor, but Dutton should have put it in the context of improving the public service, and the fact that the New South Wales Labor premier has implemented it.

“I think it was also a mistake to backflip on it. While I don’t have any data, I suspect that it would undermine his reputation for strength, and even make him seem dishonest, or shifty.”

In turn, Williams said the Liberal Party campaign was inadequate.

“It’s not hard rock populism or Trumpism that’s sinking him,” Williams said.

Dutton’s leadership style will ultimately decide the outcome more than comparisons to U.S. politics.

“It was always a cost-of-living election, the die is cast,” Williams said.