JOHANNESBURG—Whether Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate former President Donald Trump triumphs in the upcoming election, African governments are concerned that the next administration in Washington will scrap a preferential trade program that earned them 9.3 billion tax-free dollars in 2023.
AGOA was signed into law in 2000 by President Bill Clinton, with key aims being to strengthen weak African economies and promote trade between the United States and African countries.
But critics say Washington should not be financially rewarding African countries that have close political, economic, and security ties to the United States’ greatest geopolitical foes—especially China, Russia, and Iran.
A recent analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a think tank in Washington, highlighted AGOA’s deficiencies.
“Policymakers hoped that AGOA, as the primary U.S. trade policy for the region, would foster economic and political development in Africa, the world’s fastest-growing continent in both economy and population,” the analysis states.
“However, the outsize roles of oil and apparel in African export growth have raised questions about whether AGOA can diversify the region’s economies and increase its competitiveness in global markets.
AGOA is up for review in 2025. During their campaigns, both Trump and Harris have focused on reshoring supply chains, reducing reliance on foreign production, and securing critical domestic industries, particularly in response to competition with China, said Professor Patrick Bond, a sociologist observing political developments in the United States for the University of Johannesburg.
“Both candidates are focusing on the economy and lowering inflation and high prices of goods in the United States,” Bond told The Epoch Times.
Trump wants across-the-board tariffs on foreign-made goods to bolster local production, which he says will result in lower food prices, in particular.
“AGOA certainly does not fit into that framework, and the African politicians I’ve spoken with are well aware of this,” Bond said.
Harris has said she’ll implement policies that keep factories and businesses in the United States, making American goods for Americans.
“That also throws AGOA out the window,” Bond said.
Ronak Gopaldas, economic and political risk analyst at Cape Town, South Africa-based Signal Risk, told The Epoch Times: “The danger that AGOA is scrapped next year is very real.
“AGOA definitely does not align with the Democrat and Republican goals of boosting domestic production.”
He rated the chance of Trump canceling AGOA at “almost 100 percent, just based on the fact that many of the African beneficiaries are friends with China.”
The African continent’s ties with China and Russia are historical and ideological, with Moscow and Beijing supporting African insurgents with weapons, military training, and money.
Some African economies benefiting from AGOA are run by governments that support socialism and communism, and have even styled themselves in the likeness of the Chinese Communist Party.
Most of AGOA’s major beneficiaries, such as Africa’s biggest economy, South Africa, have signed far-reaching trade deals and military cooperation pacts with China and Russia.
Largely based on this, more than 200 U.S. lawmakers from both the Democrat and Republican sides are questioning the basis for AGOA.
Referring to South Africa, Risch said that Pretoria’s close relationship with Russia, Iran, and the Hamas terrorist group “subverted U.S. national security and foreign policy interests” and that South Africa should therefore not be eligible for preferential trade with the United States.
Bond said that based on Trump’s and Harris’s speeches so far, “AGOA’s future is on shaky ground.”
“Watching Trump and Harris, sometimes it’s difficult to tell who’s the Republican and who’s the Democrat. Trump said he wants policies that force insurance firms to cover in vitro fertilization. Then Harris steps up and declares she’s a fan of gun ownership,” he said.
“They’re obviously both looking for votes from their non-traditional support bases, undecided voters, but they both clearly believe in imposing high tariffs on imported products and they both oppose free-trade deals.”
Nigerian economist Sarah Alade is convinced that the “era of America giving handouts” like AGOA is over, no matter who’s in the White House in 2025.
“I think Washington’s future focus will be on trade with Africa, and infrastructure projects in Africa, that benefit both Africa and the U.S.,” Alade told The Epoch Times.
“America, like China, needs good relations with Africa because it needs the continent’s critical minerals. But it doesn’t need AGOA for those mineral deals to happen.”
Alade said moving forward, both the Democrats and the Republicans would prefer bilateral trade deals rather than “massive regional programs.”
“I think in the future U.S. administrations will want to have strategic trade, investment, and security partnerships in Africa,” he said.
“They’ll handpick friends, not have blanket programs that American voters could see as benefiting countries that build alliances with America’s enemies, or even themselves show open animosity to American beliefs and policies.”
She referred to the Biden administration’s “strategic” trade and investment partnership with Kenya.
“The United States clearly feels it can do business with Kenya, East Africa’s strongest democracy,” Alade said.
“In so doing, the United States has weakened China’s influence in Kenya, which up until relatively recently was super-strong.”
Gopaldas said the outcome of the election will shape the future of U.S.–Africa relations.
“A Trump administration, with its nationalistic mantra of ‘America first,’ will be insular and not concerned much with multilateralism,” Gopaldas said. “It’s difficult to see any future for AGOA under Trump.”
But, he added, that “wouldn’t be the end of the world” for Africa if Trump wins.
“During Trump’s term in office, Africa wasn’t on his radar, really,” Gopaldas said. “But people forget that his administration did push for trade deals with select African countries.
“In his campaigning so far, Trump has also explicitly linked trade to strategic partnerships. So I think he would definitely partner with the more Western-friendly African nations, just not under the aegis of AGOA.”
A Harris administration, Gopaldas said, could decide to strengthen African economies through trade “as key to long-term global stability,” but not necessarily using AGOA.
“Possibly Harris would modify the program to ensure that countries who benefit from it economically would pledge to counter violent extremism, instability, and economic fragility in regions of strategic importance to the United States,” Gopaldas said.
Despite the potential differences between Democrats’ and Republicans’ stances on AGOA, he stated, they’re “both ultimately guided by the same nationalistic impulses, and whether AGOA is renewed or replaced will depend on how Africa fits into America’s geopolitical and geo-economic strategy.”
