JOHANNESBURG—The South African government is convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump will soon make sure that Pretoria loses trade benefits worth at least $4 billion annually under Washington’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Instead, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa plans to take advantage of the United States leader’s “transactional” inclinations to negotiate a reciprocal trade deal that could involve access to South Africa’s vast natural resources, senior officials in Pretoria told The Epoch Times.
The AGOA, signed into law by U.S. President Bill Clinton in 2000, allows eligible African countries tariff-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products.
For the past 25 years, South Africa—the largest and most industrialized economy on the continent—has been the AGOA’s principal winner, earning tens of billions of dollars by exporting products, including critical minerals, gemstones, motor vehicles, and fresh produce, to America without having to pay taxes.
But Washington’s relations with Pretoria have plunged to an all-time low since Trump returned to the White House in January.
The U.S. president accuses the South African government of being anti-American by forming political, economic, and military alliances with Washington’s adversaries, including Iran, Russia, and communist China.
Given this “bad blood,” South Africa has “no chance” of being included in a revamped AGOA, the president of the South African Chamber of Commerce in the United States, Neil Diamond, said.
Professor Isaac Khambule of the political economics department at the University of Johannesburg told The Epoch Times, “Even if AGOA is miraculously renewed, South Africa will no longer be a member of that club.
“Even moves towards a new trade agreement will be tense, because so many Republicans and Democrats are now stacked up against South Africa.”
Bipartisan calls for South Africa to be kicked out of the AGOA began shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, when Pretoria refused to condemn Moscow’s actions.
They culminated in early 2024 when two members of Congress, Rep. John James (R-Mich.) and Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), introduced the U.S.-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act to Congress.
Prominent members of the Trump administration, including Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz, and congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), have expressed similar concerns.
Richard Morrow, senior researcher at the Brenthurst Foundation, an influential South African think tank, told The Epoch Times that Pretoria clearly doesn’t meet this requirement and Trump could “easily” use this to revoke its trade benefits.
The South African government seems to have accepted its fate. Presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya told The Epoch Times that Ramaphosa expects Trump to exclude South Africa from AGOA should it be renewed.
This would be a “huge blow” to the country’s already beleaguered finances, said Mpho Lenoke, economics lecturer at North-West University.
“There will be significant job losses and great harm, especially to the automobile and agricultural sectors,” he told The Epoch Times.
Lenoke pointed out that South African fruit is particularly popular in the United States.
“Our citrus farmers, for example, have been given an immense advantage in a very competitive global market because AGOA means they don’t pay duties,” he said. “Remove AGOA and they’re in trouble because they just won’t be able to afford to send our wonderful oranges and lemons and limes and grapefruit to the distant market in America. They’ll lose out to exporters that are closer to America.”
Justin Chadwick, head of the Citrus Growers Association of South Africa, agreed.
“The fact that we don’t pay tariffs on our exports to the United States is the only thing that’s allowing us to compete with southern hemisphere rivals like Chile and Peru,” he told The Epoch Times. “Most citrus producers elsewhere already benefit from lower input and production costs.”
Chadwick said 35,000 local jobs and 20,000 jobs in the United States could be lost should South Africa lose duty-free access to the market.
South Africa, the largest automobile manufacturer in Africa, exports almost $2 billion worth of vehicles to the United States every year under the AGOA, including models made in the country by BMW, Ford, Isuzu, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen.
“If we’re no longer in AGOA, our auto manufacturing sector will shrink significantly and we’ll suffer reputational damage that will harm our current standing in other markets,” said Billy Tom, president of the country’s Automotive Business Council.
He told The Epoch Times that almost 90,000 jobs are directly linked to AGOA vehicle exports, with a further 125,000 people employed in related industries like component supply.
To mitigate fallout from the loss of preferential U.S. trade benefits, Magwenya said the South African government wants a “revised trade deal” with Washington.
Ramaphosa recently stated in parliament that “the United States is now in a milieu of being very transactional; they would like to see what transaction can be crafted with any country that they interact with.”
Magwenya said Pretoria “might” present an offer to Trump that could result in the United States “gaining more access to gas exploration” in South Africa.
“We would also like to discuss what would be fair tariffs on South African goods, from our perspective, with our American friends,” he added.
Other high-ranking government officials who requested anonymity, as they aren’t authorized to speak to the media, told The Epoch Times a new trade agreement could potentially give the United States “special access” to South Africa’s critical minerals and precious metals, such as gold and platinum.
“The Americans will probably cut us from AGOA and will put high tariffs on our exports, but we also have cards to play in this game,” said one of the officials.
South Africa provides all the chromium that the United States imports and more than 25 percent of U.S. requirements for manganese, titanium, and platinum.
These elements are especially important to America’s arms industry.
South Africa is the world’s largest producer of manganese—an important component in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.
These batteries are now essential in many consumer electronics like laptop computers and cell phones, as well as electric vehicles and aerospace systems.
Emma Powell, head of foreign policy at the Democratic Alliance, the ANC’s main partner in South Africa’s unity government, told The Epoch Times that the Trump administration is currently “almost completely closed off” to speaking with Pretoria, “no matter what cards it thinks it holds.”
She recently returned from Washington, where she met Trump administration representatives, including senior advisers to Rubio.
“My impression is that Trump expects the ANC side of our government to make major policy changes before he’ll discuss any further trade with South Africa,” she said. “He wants to be sure that race-based legislation such as affirmative action is scrapped, and he wants to see the government taking decisive action to stop the murders of white farmers. He wants our government to stop cozying up to malign regimes. My sense is also that the Trump administration will demand that South Africa withdraws its genocide charge against Israel.”
But with Ramaphosa previously indicating that such policies and stances by his government are “non-negotiable,” it’s difficult to see any constructive way forward in terms of relations between Washington and Pretoria, Lenoke said.
“Extreme compromises” will have to be made in order to break the impasse and to make room for a “win-win” trade deal between South Africa and the United States, he said, before adding, “Trump doesn’t do compromise, so I don’t see this ending well for either side.”
