The Russian war in Ukraine is taking place solely in Ukraine, but the effects of the conflict are global. Sanctions and counter-sanctions have increased energy prices, and fears of a food shortage have amplified as Ukraine and Russia are major grain exporters.
Still, it’s not just a reduction in grain exports that have food scarcity concerns soaring. Developed countries across the globe have committed themselves to a net-zero future (pdf) in which they shun fossil fuels like natural gas and embrace wind and solar power, instead.
The transition to wind and solar might not have aggravated food concerns in an ideal environment. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set the ball rolling on cascading challenges, including food production, as natural gas is a critical ingredient in nitrogen fertilizer, a key component in crop production.
In their pursuit of net-zero, and before Russia invaded Ukraine, countries like Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, and others reduced domestically produced fossil fuels. They also increased their reliance on Russian natural gas imports to compensate for their energy shortfalls.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) gestures while speaking to Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 16, 2022. Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
As a result, Russia is a world-leading natural gas producer—second only to the United States—and is the world’s largest natural gas exporter. In 2021, Russia supplied almost 40 percent of European Union natural gas demands, according to the International Energy Agency.
Germany, the largest economy in the EU, was even more reliant as more than half of its natural gas supply originated from Russia. But following the Russian invasion, Europe implemented sanctions against Russia in coordination with the United States and its allies. In retaliation, Russia took measures to cut off Europe from its gas shipments.
Alone, fertilizers could have avoided an exponential price increase from Russia’s drawback in natural gas deliveries. But the drawback was coupled with Russia also being a significant fertilizer supplier owing to its vast stores of natural gas and willingness to tap those reserves.
Nitrogen and Crop Production
Since the 18th century, predictions of a global food crisis have abounded, with clerics like Thomas Robert Malthus hypothesizing that food supplies would eventually act as a barrier to population growth. But thanks to innovations in crop productivity, the Earth now boasts a population of almost 7.8 billion, and mass starvation has mostly remained at bay.
One such innovation was the invention of nitrogen fertilizer, as crops need phosphorous, potassium, and nitrogen to grow. Specifically, while nitrogen is naturally occurring, it’s primarily in the unreactive N2 form, which plants can’t use.
A farmer spreads nitrogen fertilizer in his wheat field in Blecourt, France, on May 27, 2021. Pascal Rossignol/Reuters
To solve the lack of reactive nitrogen in the soil, pioneers like Carl Bosch and Fritz Haber looked for ways to produce ammonia, eventually leading to the invention of reactive nitrogen fertilizer. That allowed farmers to significantly increase crop yields. Estimates now say nitrogen fertilizer supports approximately half of the world’s global population, according to Our World in Data. Furthermore, for his work, Haber won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1918.
Still, one of the critical ingredients in nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas. Plus, manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer also requires it.
Increased Russian Reliance
Thanks to its early commitment to net-zero, Germany has the most significant penetration of renewable energy in its energy mix. Renewable energy is energy derived from sources such as the sun or wind that replenish faster than they’re used. However, renewables only account for 19 percent of Germany’s energy mix, according to Geopolitical Intelligence Services. Seventy-six percent still comes from fossil fuels, with natural gas making up 26 percent of Germany’s energy needs.
Despite that, Germany’s domestic gas production is a meager 5 percent. The remaining amount is imported, with 55 percent coming from Russia. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Czech Republic, Italy, the EU, and other countries are in a similar situation.
Additionally, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Russia is responsible for 15 percent of global trade in nitrogenous fertilizers and 17 percent of global potash fertilizer exports. Potash is soluble potassium, which is another primary plant macronutrient. Belarus, Russia’s ally, accounts for an additional 16 percent of the global potash supply.
The logo of the Russian energy company Gazprom is seen on а station in Sofia, Bulgaria, on April 27, 2022. Spasiyana Sergieva/Reuters
Even before the Ukraine–Russia conflict, fertilizer prices had increased because of European production cutbacks. In November 2021, the World Bank reported, “Surging natural gas prices in Europe resulted in widespread production cutbacks in ammonia—an important input for nitrogen fertilizers.” It further noted that the price increase was driven by “supply curtailments and trade policies.”
The IFPRI further reported that almost all European countries have varying dependencies on nitrogenous fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus. In some countries, the reliance reaches as high as 60 percent or more. For example, Germany imports 33.4 percent of its nitrogenous fertilizer from Russia; the Czech Republic and Italy import 33.5 percent; Albania imports 69.1 percent; and Moldova imports 83.9 percent.
European potash imports are even more extreme, with most countries importing more than 60 percent from Russia and Belarus.
With such a heavy reliance on Russia and its ally Belarus for natural gas and fertilizer, it comes as little surprise that commodity prices—natural gas, fertilizer, and potash are all commodities—skyrocketed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Escalating Food Prices
Immediately following the start of the war in Ukraine, fertilizer prices surged 30 percent. That 30 percent increase was on top of 2021’s 80 percent increase. The World Bank’s Commodity Market Outlook (pdf) reported, “Commodity prices rose sharply following the start of the war in Ukraine, particularly for commodities for which Russia and Ukraine are key exporters.”
It added (pdf) that the price spike for food and fertilizers was the third largest after the spikes in 1974 and 2008. “Price increases from April 2020-March 2022 were the largest for any equivalent 23-month period since 1973 for energy, and since 2008 for fertilizers and food.”
That price increase, according to the IMF, will add $9 billion to food and fertilizer imports in 2022 and 2023.
“Russia’s war in Ukraine exacerbated pressures on international prices for food staples and fertilizers. … Moreover, high prices for fertilizers and energy as well as substantial downside risks weigh on the outlook. As a result of all these developments, the world is now facing a food crisis of a proportion that is at least equal to the 2007–08 crisis that left many countries with severe undersupply of food and caused large suffering and a high number of deaths,” the IMF said.
Jennifer Jones sorts her bills at her small flat in London, on Aug. 25, 2022. Like millions of people, Jones, 54, is struggling to cope as energy and food prices skyrocket during Britain's worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Frank Augstein/AP Photo
Alzbeta Klein, CEO and director of the International Fertilizer Association, and John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank Group, elaborated in their podcast: “We have a brewing food crisis because we don’t have fertilizers to fertilize lands all over the world so that we can produce for the next harvest and the one after. Fertilizer prices went up because prices of energy went up.
“This has an impact on how farmers behave, what they plant, what they do not plant, how they tend their fields. Soy requires less fertilizer than corn, so we have seen a tilt towards more soy and less corn, which has an impact further down the value chain. … The impact unfortunately will be global and felt in every part of the value chain. Our food system is extremely interconnected and global.”
They added specifically about the effects of the war in Ukraine: “Another side of the problem is that some fertilizers, especially nitrogen-based fertilizers, use natural gas as the main input. Because natural gas supplies have been affected by war in Ukraine (and even prior to the war), there has been a reduction in the supply of fertilizers elsewhere, apart from Belarus and Russia.”
Falling Domestic Production
In 2021, at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), 153 countries committed to new 2030 net-zero commitments (pdf). But that wasn’t the first time countries made such commitments to net-zero pursuits.
In 2000, Germany enacted the Renewable Energy Sources Act, which required 6 percent of energy to come from “renewable resources.” In 2017, Germany revised the legislation, upping “renewable resources” to 40 to 45 percent in 2025. Then in 2030, the requirement will increase to 65 percent, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action.
In 2018, the Czech Republic committed to at least 13 percent of consumed energy from “renewable sources” by 2020. And it also committed to 18 to 25 percent of its electricity production from “renewables” by 2040 and said it “generally supported” EU targets for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (R) greet U.S. President Joe Biden at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 1, 2021. Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
Additionally, according to the Glasgow Climate Pact, which resulted from COP26, 90 percent of the world’s collective money and global emissions now fall under net-zero commitments. As a result, countries are phasing out things such as domestically produced coal and natural gas and increasing their reliance on wind and solar.
However, natural gas is necessary for fertilizer and energy needs. Consequently, countries committed to net-zero have increased their reliance on Russia for fertilizer and natural gas deliveries. That reliance has resulted in an evolving global food crisis.
Katie Spence
Freelance reporter
Katie Spence is a freelance reporter for The Epoch Times who covers energy, climate, and Colorado politics. She has also covered medical industry censorship and government collusion.
Ms. Spence has more than 10 years of experience in media and has worked for outlets including The Motley Fool and The Maverick Observer.
She can be reached at: [email protected]
