A Labour Party proposed “returns deal' with the European Union to manage the small boats crisis could result in the UK receiving a higher number of illegal immigrants than it could return, analysis by a British think-tank suggests.
Migration Watch said the party’s asylum policy proposals “may exacerbate” the problem and could pose significant challenges for immigration control.
In an analysis paper published on Monday, the think-tank examined various aspects of Labour’s immigration plan, including its approach to addressing labour shortages, the proposed “Skills England” initiative, and its stance on irregular migration.
Notable findings include concerns about the independence of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) and the potential impact of immigration on labour shortages.
Dr. Mike Jones, executive director of Migration Watch UK, said the party’s proposed immigration strategy presents “both commendable initiatives and potential pitfalls that demand careful consideration.”
Brussels Deal
Last month, Sir Keir Starmer indicated Labour could do a deal with Brussels involving the UK taking a quota of asylum seekers who arrive in the bloc in exchange for being able to return people who cross the Channel.
He also said the party would pay for more asylum caseworkers to help clear the backlog of more than 175,000 asylum seekers awaiting an initial decision on their application.
On Monday, Sir Keir went further—vowing to scrap plans to forcibly remove asylum seekers to Rwanda even if the policy is deemed legal by the courts.
The Labour leader told the BBC he was clear he would reverse the “hugely expensive” and “wrong” scheme, which he said would only ever impact a very small proportion of migrants crossing the Channel.
He made the comments on the same day as the Supreme Court began hearing the government’s appeal against the ruling that the policy is unlawful as ministers struggle to achieve Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats.”
In its research paper, Migration Watch said Labour’s proposed EU deal “might unintentionally” attract more irregular migrants, moving the UK’s border closer to high-migration regions.
It added: “A returns deal with the EU could also lead to the UK receiving more irregular migrants than it repatriates. This will pose challenges for immigration control.”
It said Labour’s proposals are still “vague”, possibly deliberately to “avoid the Conservatives adopting their best ideas”.
“However, there is no commitment to actually reducing the scale of immigration and some proposals under consideration would add still further to it,” it said.
“Indeed, party pressures might well to an increase in the scale of immigration.”
Working Visas
The paper said that during Sir Tony Blair’s tenure as the leader of New Labour, there was a “substantial rise” in immigration, especially from newly joined EU countries in Eastern Europe.“Between 1997 and 2010, the yearly net migration rate increased four-fold, resulting in over 2.2 million immigrants added to the UK population, which is more than double the population of Birmingham,” it said.
“Given this historical context, it is understandable that Keir Starmer, the current leader of the Labour Party, has committed to a tougher stance on immigration than any of his New Labour predecessors.”
However, it said, there are a number of “pitfalls” in Labour’s immigration proposals. Analysing the party’s goal is to enhance the MAC by improving data access and communication across government departments, Migrant Watch said closer ties to the government could compromise MAC’s independence.
The paper said that would raise concerns about “biased recommendations.” Labour also suggested that a newly reformed MAC should be connected with a new “expert body” called “Skills England.”
The aim, the party said, is to create a coordinated approach that addresses skill shortages by nurturing a skilled domestic workforce with one of the key arguments put forward that certain professions, such as nursing and civil engineering, have consistently been on the Shortage Occupation List for as long as 15 years.
Migration Watch said that while the exact workings of Skills England and its coordination with the MAC aren’t thoroughly detailed in the policy, there are “potential issues with a top-down approach to workforce upskilling.”
It said: “To begin with, an arms-length public body might not fully grasp the diverse and evolving skill requirements of different businesses and industries. As the MAC has highlighted in a previous report, stakeholder evidence is often inconsistent with the quantitative data.”
In addition, it said, skills demands can “fluctuate significantly between sectors,” even within the same sector, leading to a potential mismatch between the skills framework and actual job market needs.
Betrayal
Last month, Migrant Watch described an almost six-fold increase in the number of skill-related work visas for non-EU immigrants as a “betrayal” of the Tory party’s 2019 manifesto pledge of bringing net migration down.In 2022/2023 alone, 159,000 skill-related work visas were granted to foreign nationals outside Europe—an increase from 27,000 permits issued in 2018/2019.
According to the government’s own statistics, between 2021 and 2023, nearly 60 percent of those were granted to workers considered to be in low-skilled jobs, including chefs, fishmongers, and poultry workers.
Of the three million lower-skilled immigrants granted work visas, over 62,000 were listed as working in the care system.
In that time, the share of skilled work permits being granted for below-graduate level jobs rose from 11 percent in 2021 to 62 percent in 2023.
Official estimates published in May revealed how net migration had hit a new record high, with 606,000 immigrants from non-EU countries arriving for work, study, and humanitarian reasons.
The figure marked a significant increase from 2021, when net migration stood at 488,000.
Speaking at the time, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged the numbers were “too high”—but denied that net migration was out of control.
The Labour Party blamed the rise on the government’s alleged failure to tackle a skills shortage.
