Minority Government, Uncertain Election Date Force Elections Canada to Prepare 2 Electoral Maps

Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault holds a news conference in Ottawa, Ont., on Sept. 17, 2019. The Canadian Press/Fred Chartrand

Elections Canada’s plan to revise the country’s electoral boundaries has suddenly become more complicated, thanks to the fact an election could be called at any time under the current minority government.

Addressing the House affairs committee in May, Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault described how a new electoral map with additions, subtractions, and revised ridings—a massive undertaking in itself—will be twice as complex this year.

Federal ridings are readjusted every 10 years based on census information. On Sept. 23, 2023, Mr. Perrault was advised of the new electoral districts, which will be in effect in the next election called after April 22, 2024. An election called before then would be under existing electoral boundaries.

Mr. Perrault underscored the unique context of the current minority government situation, noting that returning officers must “be able to pivot overnight and be ready to hold an election on the new map” at any time.

Elections Canada “is faced with the unprecedented situation of having to pursue its preparations for an election under two different sets of maps and be ready to switch instantly from one to the other,” he said. “This is no small undertaking.”

On Jan. 13, Mr. Perrault named new returning officers for all federal ridings, as first covered by Blacklock’s Reporter.

In anticipation of the upcoming general election, Mr. Perrault said, efforts are underway to enhance and update Election Canada’s services. A crucial aspect of this modernization involves implementing electronic voter lists, enabling electors to be assisted at any station within their assigned polling area. This innovation is expected to decrease waiting periods and tackle the significant issue of a shrinking workforce.

The Conservative Party is the only major political party that has openly called for the dissolution of the 44th Parliament within the year.

Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada, co-chair of the Liberal campaign committee, told reporters last November that the party is “going to have to be ready” for the next election.

Ms. Ferrada, alongside Liberal MP Terry Duguid, who serves as the parliamentary secretary to the prime minister, has been tasked with steering the Liberal Party’s preparations for the upcoming federal election. This preparation involves mobilizing candidates, engaging volunteers, and fundraising efforts.

“The objective is to be ready,” said Ms. Ferrada. “When it will come is certainly not up to me but we have to be ready.”

The Liberal Party’s recent communication with its donors stressed the importance of preparedness in the face of a minority Parliament where elections can be called at any moment, according to Blacklock’s. The party specifically mentioned the need to mobilize support against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, highlighting the competitive political environment.

A recent Abacus Data poll indicates that if an election were to take place now, 41 percent of the electorate would back Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party.

The Conservatives are leading across various demographic segments and in all regions, Quebec being the only exception. The survey also reveals a shift in party popularity, with the Conservatives gaining a 4-point increase since last month, while the Liberals have experienced a 3-point decline, now holding 24 percent of voter support.

The electoral map changes, effective from April 22, will result in the creation of the largest House of Commons in Canadian history, with 343 seats. This change includes the addition of new seats in British Columbia and Alberta, and adjustments in Ontario and Northern Ontario, reflecting shifting population dynamics.

The adjustments will result in the loss of one riding in Toronto, Scarborough-Agincourt, currently held by Liberal MP Jean Yip, and a reduction in Northern Ontario’s representation. New ridings will be established in suburban Ontario, signifying the growing importance of these regions in national politics.