“Nancy Pelosi’s visit was in a way used by Beijing as a pretext. Why? In part because Beijing had prepared for that visit that was supposed to take place in the spring of 2022,” Bondaz said on Nov. 22, noting that Beijing’s military exercises “took place very quickly because they were actually prepared ahead of time.”
However, Bondaz added that an open military incursion into Taiwan remains Beijing’s last resort to “reunify” the island, which it sees as its territory despite being a self-ruled island, and the CCP would instead take an incremental approach to gain control over the self-ruled democracy.
“China intends to take control [over Taiwan] without resorting to force. So Beijing intends to pressure the people of Taiwan, to demoralize the people, to weaken the country, to potentially take control of the island,” he said. “Large-scale military intervention would be a last resort for China and clearly not the favourite scenario. But that being said, you can’t cast that option aside.”
Pushback Against Beijing’s Narratives
When asked what Canada can do to push back against Beijing’s advance on Taiwan, Bondaz recommended exposing the CCP’s narrative and not following Beijing’s party line to describe the situation in the Taiwan Strait.“We need to make sure that the words we use are not the one that Beijing has chosen to use, but other one that can better present and describe the situation in the most accurate manner,” he said. “That’s why the concept of ’taking back Taiwan‘ is not the word that should be used, we talk about ’taking over Taiwan.’”
Yeh-Chung Lu, chair of the Department of Diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, told The Epoch Times that he believes Beijing came prepared to intimidate Taiwan in advance of Pelosi’s tour, adding that even if she had backed down from visiting Taiwan in the face of China’s threats, Beijing would find other excuses to advance its agenda.
“Even without [Pelosi’s visit], China will take advantage of the next visit to Taiwan by an important American politician,” he said, noting that another time for China to launch a military exercise would be Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
Lu, who also testified before the Canada-China committee on Nov. 22, said Beijing has also “employed peaceful overture to lure Taiwan into its plot” from time to time.
“The most obvious policy of carrot included attracting Taiwanese business people, performing artists, and students to invest, work, and study in mainland China under the policy dubbed as ‘integrated development,’” Lu said.
“Domestic politics mattered in shaping Taiwan people’s identity, where more and more citizens view Taiwan as a de facto independent country from mainland China,” Lu said. “China’s sell on the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ has no market in Taiwan, especially in the aftermath of China’s rule with an iron fist over Hong Kong in 2019.”