China, Russia and Iran Conduct Joint Military Drills in Signal to West

An Iranian military boat patrols as a warship enters the Iranian waters prior to start of a joint naval drill of Iran, Russia and China in the Indian Ocean on March 12, 2024. Iranian Army via AP

On March 12, the Biden administration said it would send a $300 million stop-gap military aid package to Ukraine, and the European Union also agreed on Monday to a 5 billion euro ($5.4 billion) increase to the Ukrainian military aid fund. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and Iran conducted joint military drills in the Middle East in a signal to the West.

On March 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview on Russian state-run Rossiya-1 television that while nuclear weapons are not being considered on the Ukrainian battlefield, the use of nuclear weapons could not be ruled out if his country’s sovereignty or independence is threatened. His remarks are viewed as an attempt to restrain the ongoing United States and NATO support for Ukraine amidst the prolonged conflict.

“Weapons exist in order to use them,” Mr. Putin said. He also warned that Russia is ready, from a military-technical point of view, for nuclear war, and he indicated that any U.S. troop deployment to Ukraine would be seen as a significant escalation of the conflict.

In response to Putin’s threatening remarks, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the U.S. government has not seen “any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.”

Emergency Aid to Ukraine

As the Russia-Ukraine war entered its third year on Feb. 24, Ukraine had yet to achieve a decisive strategic counteroffensive, leaving the conflict in a stalemate. International military aid to Ukraine has appeared to wane, leaving Ukrainian forces feeling the immense pressure of supply shortages.

In response to the dire situation, the United States and the European Union swiftly moved to provide urgent assistance to Ukraine. The U.S. government’s additional $300 million in military aid to Ukraine marked another comprehensive aid package since Dec. 27 last year.

The requested additional budget of around $60 billion, including aid to Ukraine, is pending approval in the House of Representatives. During a press briefing on March 12, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that this aid package includes artillery rounds and munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and he urged the House to pass the budget promptly.

On the same day, the French National Assembly voted overwhelmingly, with 372 in favor and 99 against, to support recent bilateral security agreements between France and Ukraine. The French government warned of a great disaster if Russia were to triumph.

Following the United States, all 27 EU member states reached an agreement on March 13 to increase the Ukraine military aid fund by 5 billion euros ($.54 billion), building upon the comprehensive 50 billion euro ($54.4 billion) aid plan passed on Feb. 1, 2024. The European Council officially announced the increase in a March 18 statement. The first batch of urgently needed munition for Ukraine is expected to arrive no later than the end of June.

Post-War Effects

In Dec. 2023, due to stalled U.S. and EU assistance to Ukraine, Ukraine’s allies and some EU countries began quietly considering the impact of a Ukrainian defeat and reassessing the risks posed by a Russian victory to NATO’s Eastern European countries.

Assessments suggest that if Russia were to win, its ripple effects would be global. America’s allies and partners would question U.S. military commitments, far surpassing the fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

At the time, the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar stated at an EU summit that if Ukraine did not receive support from the EU and the United States, Putin would prevail. European officials also expressed concerns that without weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, Russia could seize more Ukrainian territory, leading to Ukraine’s forced acceptance of a ceasefire agreement proposed by Russia. Estonian defense officials warned that once the war ends, Russia could be ready to attack NATO within a year.

Some EU officials suggest that if Putin were to win, it would trigger a refugee influx into EU countries, leading to long-term turmoil on the EU’s eastern borders. Some European countries might strengthen ties with Moscow and Beijing to avoid overreliance on the United States.

China-Russia-Iran Joint Military Exercises

On March 12, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense confirmed that from March 11-15, China, Russia, and Iran planned to conduct joint military drills in the Gulf of Oman in the Middle East. This marks the fourth joint military exercise since March last year. Given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas War, this move is seen as a muscle-flexing alliance between the three countries.

The joint exercise was called “Maritime Security Belt 2024”, and the focus was on combating piracy and maritime search and rescue. China dispatched a missile destroyer and a comprehensive supply ship, Russia sent a missile cruiser, and Iran deployed more than ten ships for the joint military exercise.

Rear Adm. Mohammad Nozari, the IRGC commander of Iran’s base at Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, said that the drill’s chief objectives were “consolidating regional security, promoting China-Russia-Iran cooperation,” according to Voice of America.

“The Chinese and the Russians are using this exercise as a variety of tools disposable to them to show their presence and to pressure the West,” said Meir Javedanfar, a researcher in Iranian politics at Reichman University, in Herzliya, Israel. He explained to Voice of America that against the background of unprecedented U.S. and Western naval presence in the Middle East, the rivalry between the China-Russia-Iran front against the Western front is now heating up as the Middle East has become a focal point in this geopolitical struggle.

The alliance between the three countries is often dubbed the “new axis of evil,” and there are increasing concerns about China’s role and intentions in disrupting the world order alongside Russia and Iran.

On March 11, the U.S. Department of Defense released detailed information on the $849.8 billion military budget request for fiscal year 2025.

“We must continue to adapt, advance and innovate at speed and scale across all domains, prioritizing China as the pacing challenge, and Russia as an acute threat,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chair Navy Adm. Christopher Grady said.

The core of the U.S. defense strategy is comprehensive deterrence. The “2022 Defense Strategy” outlined the priorities for defense and security in this decade, primarily focusing on countering China’s threat, preventing strategic attacks on the United States and its allies and partners, addressing wars initiated by Russia, as well as Iran, North Korea, and global terrorist organizations. Adm. Grady emphasized that the “strategy-driven budget does exactly that.”