Over the recent weekend, a series of unforeseen events unfolded in various global hotspots—specifically, the Middle East, the South China Sea, and the border shared by North Korea and Russia—significantly heightening international tensions.
These developments have prompted concerns about a potential large-scale conflict erupting in Israel, with speculations suggesting China and Russia might be playing a behind-the-scenes role along with Iran.
As the core force in maintaining world peace, the United States faces challenges on multiple fronts—in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East—as it grapples with increasing confrontations with China.
Violence Erupts
In the early hours of Oct. 7, Hamas fired 5,000 rockets at eastern and southern Israel. Simultaneously, dozens of terrorists breached the Israeli border, infiltrating communities and launching attacks that killed more than 1,300 people.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promptly declared a state of war, vowing that the “enemy” would face an “unprecedented price” for their actions.
Numerous nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, and the Czech Republic, swiftly condemned the attacks as acts of terrorism against Israel and its people, asserting support for Israel’s right to self-defense.
In contrast, Egypt, Turkey, Russia, China, and other countries refrained from direct condemnation, instead urging all parties to “exercise restraint.”
On Oct. 8, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that U.S. forces globally are on standby. He directed the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to demonstrate unwavering support for Israel. Additionally, the United States initiated the delivery of essential equipment to Israel, including ammunition.
Hamas has seen an unprecedented increase in its combat capabilities and intelligence. They have employed a significant number of rockets, drones, and training. Hamas acknowledges receiving “support from Iran” and “assistance from other countries.” The roles of Iran, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Russia are all under scrutiny.
On the “X” platform, independent commentator Cai Shenkun opined that Hamas’ recent major assault on Israel received support from a significant power. The objective is to provoke a war to divert attention from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taiwan Strait crisis, amplifying the focus on the powder keg that is the Middle East.
Mr. Cai emphasized that for hardliner Mr. Netanyahu, a robust counterattack is perceived as the sole recourse, evident in his declaration of a “state of war.”
Former Chinese Navy Colonel Yao Cheng echoed similar sentiments, contending that Hamas lacked the strength and courage to independently execute such a large-scale assault on Israel. He postulated that the CCP was a prime suspect behind the attack.
Provocations
In the midst of mounting global tensions, worrisome developments align with concerns articulated by Mr. Yao.On Oct. 6, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent U.S. think tank, published a report under its Beyond Parallel initiative suggesting that North Korea may be openly defying United Nations Security Council resolutions by transporting weaponry to Russia.
Satellite imagery from the report reveals that on Oct. 5, the Tumangang Rail Facility on the North Korean-Russian border displayed 73 freight train cars, each laden with items and securely covered. This sudden spike in activity on Oct. 5, significantly exceeding the facility’s busiest days over the past five years, strongly suggests the transportation of weapons and ammunition to Russia. This aligns with the U.S. government’s announcement on Oct. 5, confirming North Korea’s initiation of arms shipments to Russia.
Mr. Kim visited Russia Sept. 12-17, during which it is believed that an agreement was forged with Mr. Putin involving North Korea providing weapons to aid Russia in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, addressing Russia’s ammunition shortages. In return, Moscow agreed to supply North Korea with coveted rocket-related space technology and other sought-after resources.
Concurrently, on Oct. 4, Philippine Coast Guard vessels accompanied Philippine supply boats in route to deliver logistical provisions to an outpost in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal), an area embroiled in sovereignty disputes between China and the Philippines. This area has witnessed frequent confrontations. On this day, a Chinese Coast Guard ship intercepted and encircled a Philippine patrol vessel, attempting to obstruct the country’s resupply mission. This incident brought Chinese and Philippine vessels perilously close to a collision, with only a one-meter separation, resulting in a tense eight-hour standoff.
Vice Admiral Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard, strongly condemned the actions of the Chinese Coast Guard ship, labeling it a blatant violation of international law. He emphasized that the quick maneuvering and subsequent rapid reversal of engines by the Philippine patrol vessel were instrumental in narrowly averting a direct collision with the obstructing Chinese Coast Guard ship during the incident.
The routine resupply mission of logistical provisions to Second Thomas Shoal carries critical implications. It has underscored the alarming reality that the China-Philippines conflict in the South China Sea, in comparison to potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, presents a far more uncertain and precarious situation.
US-China Rivalry
Recent reports point to preparations for a visit by Mr. Xi to Vietnam, potentially slated for late October or early November.When questioned about this potential visit, Pham Thu Hang, spokesperson for the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, maintained that all diplomatic activities would be officially announced at an appropriate juncture.
In recent months, the escalating competition between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region has become increasingly conspicuous. President Joe Biden’s trilateral summit with the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David in August helped mend tensions and solidify the “Iron Triangle” alliance among the United States, Japan, and South Korea. This alliance aims to counter the influence exerted by China and North Korea in Northeast Asia.
Subsequently, President Biden elevated U.S.-Vietnam relations from a “comprehensive partnership” to the highest level of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” during his visit to Vietnam in September, marking a pivotal moment in the half-century since the conclusion of the Vietnam War.
Furthermore, the United States and Vietnam are in discussions regarding what could potentially become the largest arms deal, including the sale of F-16 fighter jets, raising concerns in Beijing.
As the United States and China vie for influence in Southeast Asia and Vietnam increasingly leans towards aligning with the United States, China is growing increasingly apprehensive. Reports indicate that China has taken steps to arrange accommodations for Mr. Xi’s delegation in Hanoi, potentially aligning with a planned visit.
Fueling Tensions
As the rivalry between the United States and China escalates, a sudden eruption of conflict in the Middle East adds a complex layer to the global geopolitical landscape.The U.S.-China competition is manifesting increasingly overtly in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. The South China Sea holds immense strategic significance for the United States, serving as the shortest route connecting the Arabian Sea and the Pacific Ocean. It is the crucial lifeline when the U.S. Fifth and Seventh Fleets need to coordinate their movements, and it is a vital assurance for the United States to address cross-regional conflicts simultaneously.
Reflecting on the 1990s, the U.S. military had asserted its ability to wage simultaneous wars in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. However, during that time, the principal threat in Europe—the communist bloc led by the Soviet Union—had disintegrated, resulting in the dissolution of the Soviet Union itself.
In the Asia-Pacific, the predominant concern was the Chinese communist regime, which had adopted a low-profile approach, focusing on economic reforms and maintaining an elevated level of economic dependency on the United States. Neither China nor Russia possessed the capability to effectively challenge the United States. As the primary force safeguarding global peace, the United States demonstrated its preparedness to manage conflicts on both fronts, even against formidable adversaries like China and Russia.
Fast forward to the present, over a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow finds itself grappling with a challenging situation. In contrast, China, after three decades of maintaining a low profile, has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy, influencing various sectors in Europe and the United States. Under the leadership of Mr. Xi, China has begun challenging the international order established by the United States post-World War II.
In October 2022, the U.S. government released its “National Security Strategy,” emphasizing the imperative to bolster American power and collaborate with allies to address the challenges posed by China and Russia. Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine involving Russia for over half a year, the strategic report underscored that “China is the only competitor with the economic, diplomatic, and military potential to contest the shape of the international order.”
The escalation of the U.S.-China confrontation, coupled with the sudden outbreak of major military conflicts in the Middle East, raises critical questions regarding the United States’ capacity to effectively manage potential wars concurrently across Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East.
