Africa Would Bear Brunt of US Tariffs, Must Look to Negotiations, Analysts Say

African governments have appointed special envoys to be dispatched to Washington to negotiate with President Trump’s representatives before the July 9 deadline.

Workers perform a quality check inside the United Aryan textile factory at the Export Processing Zone in Nairobi, Kenya, on Feb. 4, 2025. Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images

JOHANNESBURG—With reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States expected to kick in on July 9, African governments have appointed special envoys to be dispatched to Washington to negotiate with President Donald Trump’s representatives before the deadline.

African countries, which make up the world’s poorest region, will be hit with duties as high as 50 percent if the tariffs take effect. Many will no longer be able to afford to export to the lucrative U.S. market, according to trade specialists, who said the countries should negotiate a path toward lower tariffs.

The tariffs will cut billions of dollars from African budgets, as the United States is many African countries’ largest international trade partner after China, which has invested heavily in Africa since 2013 under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing has often been accused of using the BRI infrastructure development agreements to extract African resources and trap the continent in debt.

In an April 2 executive order, Trump announced higher duties on goods exported to the United States. He said many countries had exploited the nation for decades and accused some of unfair practices that have contributed to “large and persistent” trade deficits that are a detriment to the U.S. economy.

“For the first time in decades, the United States will see fair trade as President Donald J. Trump announces tariffs to level the playing field for American workers and businesses,” the White House said in an April 2 statement.

A week later, Trump enacted a 90-day pause on the tariffs for nearly all U.S. trade partners and trading blocs—except China—with an invitation for them to negotiate.

Reaching out to his administration would be “a significant step by these countries toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and aligning sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security matters,” Trump’s executive order states.

Roy Mutooni, a Kenyan trade and investment specialist, told The Epoch Times that he expects some of these countries to agree to import more from the United States to try to correct any trade imbalances and to offer the United States preferential access to resources, minerals, and “uniquely African agricultural produce” in exchange for lower tariffs.

“African countries are financially disempowered and aren’t in any kind of position to even try to respond with tariffs of their own on American products, like the richer regions,” Mutooni said. “They must suck it up and swallow whatever Trump throws at them and hope they can negotiate a path toward lower tariffs because the economic harm done by being excluded from the U.S. market could be greater than whatever concessions they make.”

According to research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Africa’s total exports to the United States have increased by 43 percent over the past two decades, to $40 billion in 2024 from $28 billion in 2000.

The continent’s exports to the United States have remained primarily raw and extractive, according to the center, with more than 51 percent of African exports to the United States in 2023 being minerals and precious stones.

Workers collect cotton in a field in Soclogbo, Benin, on Jan. 13, 2025. Olympia de Maismont/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. tariffs could wipe out entire African economic sectors, financial experts say, with potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs lost in countries where unemployment levels are already among the highest in the world.

They forecast that the U.S. administration’s new tariffs, along with China’s retaliatory levies, will result in a significant drop in investment in Africa and harm the continent’s economic development.

Ann Bernstein, director of the Center for Development and Enterprise in South Africa, said tariffs would strike the continent with more force than other regions, as Africa is dependent on imports.

“Big parts of Africa haven’t industrialized yet, so they have no domestic manufacturing bases to speak of,” she told The Epoch Times. “It will still have to import most of what it needs, and with all these products facing higher tariffs, the higher costs will force prices up for Africans.”

David Monyae, director of the Center for Africa–China Studies in Johannesburg, said the tariffs and subsequent reorganization of global trade could spark a worldwide economic backslide.

“Africa’s other key trade partners, most notably in Europe, could ease back on importing from Africa in favor of more homegrown goods or exporters closer to home,” he told The Epoch Times.

He noted that the U.S. tariffs also signaled the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), through which 32 eligible African countries have been earning billions of dollars per year with tax-free access to the U.S. market for more than 1,800 products.

President Bill Clinton signed the AGOA into law 25 years ago, saying it would promote trade between the United States and Africa.

Ken Matambo, an economist in Botswana who formerly served as the country’s minister of finance and economic planning, said the same African countries that will bear the brunt of high U.S. tariffs have been the biggest beneficiaries of the AGOA.

“This is because the income earned under AGOA exports to the United States has created what Trump considers to be an unfair trade imbalance, in that the benefits of the AGOA meant that some countries export more to America than they import,” he told The Epoch Times.

“After all, AGOA was never intended to be reciprocal.”

Matambo pointed to South Africa, the continent’s largest and most developed economy, which, in recent years, has earned an extra $3.5 billion annually in tariff-free exports—primarily automobiles, fresh produce, and minerals—to the United States.

Loss of this revenue would erase about 0.3 percentage points of gross domestic product, which increased by a mere 0.6 percent in 2024, said David Mhlanga, professor at the University of Johannesburg’s College of Business and Economics.

He told The Epoch Times that the United States’ 31 percent duty on South African goods would be a severe blow to the country’s agricultural sector.

“The U.S. traditionally imports a lot of South African fruit, especially citrus,” Mhlanga said. “South Africa’s vehicle manufacturing industry will also be hit hard.”

These sectors collectively employ 1 million people, he said.

Trump has exempted critical minerals, which the United States needs for its own economic development, energy, security, and safety.

“America gets all its chromium and manganese from South Africa and other minerals and metals that are especially useful to make arms and weapons, so it would have been foolhardy to impose harsh tariffs on these,” Mhlanga said.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa described the U.S. tariffs as “punitive,” “coercive,” and “unilateral.” He said the tariffs would force South Africa into stronger trade relations with other markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, China, India, and Europe.

The Trump administration on April 2 singled out South Africa for its barriers to trade with the United States, including “high tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and unjustified animal health restrictions.”

“These barriers have contributed to a 78% decline in U.S. poultry exports to South Africa, from $89 million in 2019 to $19 million in 2024,” a White House fact sheet reads.

Lesotho, a tiny enclave nation surrounded by South Africa, is also facing a tariff of 50 percent. The mountain kingdom’s economy is almost entirely dependent on textile exports to the United States, but it gets most of its imports from South Africa.

Lesotho’s trade minister, Mokhethi Shelile, told The Epoch Times that the U.S. tariff would close at least 11 factories and cost 12,000 jobs.

Other nations facing large duties on exports to the United States include Madagascar (47 percent), Mauritius (40 percent), Botswana (37 percent), Angola (32 percent), Libya (31 percent), and Algeria (30 percent).

Madagascar exported $733.2 million in goods to the United States in 2024, mostly textiles, and imported only $53.4 million in U.S. products, creating a large trade deficit.

The United States consequently imposed a tariff of almost 50 percent on the island nation, a move that threatens its textile industry and 60,000 jobs.

The Epoch Times contacted the White House for comment but did not receive a reply by publication time.

In response to questions about the tariffs on Africa, a U.S. government official in South Africa referred The Epoch Times to a White House fact sheet released on April 2.

According to the statement, the tariffs are necessary to ensure fair trade, protect U.S. workers, and reduce trade deficits that harm the U.S. economy.

The levies target “pernicious economic policies and practices” that undermine the United States’ ability to produce essential goods for the public and the military, threatening national security, the White House stated.