A Look at Potential Liberal Leadership Contenders

Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland (L), Dominic LeBlanc (C), and Arif Virani participate in a press conference in Montreal on Jan. 23, 2024. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi

News Analysis

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure looking increasingly tenuous, a number of people are presumably eyeing the top Liberal role and considering running for the leadership.

Will the future party leader come from within the cadre of ministers who have served for years under Trudeau? Or will it be someone outside the current caucus who may take the party in a new direction?

Ministers considering a run face the challenging task of offering change while defending their record amid falling poll numbers. Requirements of cabinet solidarity also set boundaries regarding what can be said in public around leadership issues.

A Former Deputy

Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland freed herself from cabinet solidarity when she resigned last week, taking shots at Trudeau and attempting to separate herself from the government’s fiscal agenda.

In her Dec. 16 resignation letter to Trudeau posted on social media, Freeland accused him of using “costly political gimmicks” at a time when the country should keep its finances in check to prepare for a trade war with the incoming U.S. administration.

Freeland’s resignation also widened a rift in the Liberal caucus, mounting calls for Trudeau to resign, while some MPs have also publicly backed her as future party leader. This includes Prince Edward Island MP Sean Casey, who was among the first to publicly call for Trudeau’s resignation, and Ontario MP Chandra Arya, who had initially defended Trudeau during the mini-caucus revolt in October.

Some cabinet members, like Justice Minister Arif Virani, lauded Freeland’s time in government after her resignation but didn’t answer directly when he was asked by reporters whether he wants Trudeau to stay on.

Freeland said in her letter that she intends to run in the next election, unlike Housing Minister Sean Fraser, who has said he is resigning from cabinet and isn’t planning to run again.

The move by Freeland resulted in multiple ripple effects that could impact an eventual leadership contest. For one, it led to former Bank of Canada governor and potential contender Mark Carney’s decision not to enter government, as had been rumoured to happen. It also made Dominic LeBlanc a more prominent figure in Trudeau’s cabinet as a “fixer,” taking on the role of finance minister hours after Freeland’s resignation,. Trudeau has also tasked him with addressing the border security issues at the centre of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Serving Ministers

Ministers tend to keep their political ambitions private, but one cabinet minister may have hinted that she’s interested in the leadership job by way of an interview with a U.S. publication in early December.

“Tapped by Trudeau to Steer Foreign Affairs, She’s Now His Possible Successor,” reads a New York Times (NYT) headline for an article profiling Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly. Joly doesn’t specifically say she’s running, but she is quoted as saying she should not be “underestimated.”

Joly doesn’t appear to have spoken to media since Freeland’s resignation. When asked about a potential leadership bid by CTV News after the NYT article was published, she didn’t directly deny being interested.

“My goal is to get re-elected in the next election, and to be representing Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Que.), and I think that is a prerequisite to any other political engagement,” she said.

Joly became foreign affairs minister in the fall of 2021 and was tasked with rebuilding ties with Beijing after Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were freed from arbitrary detention in China as part of the Huawei-Meng Wanzhou affair. Joly has had to handle other thorny files, such as the rift with India this year. Following the Israel-Hamas war, she has also overseen Canada changing its traditional stance of backing Israel at the United Nations.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walks to a group photo opportunity with his cabinet following a swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on July 26, 2023. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Other cabinet ministers who could be potential leadership contenders include LeBlanc, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.

LeBlanc briefly considered running for the leadership of the party in 2008 before dropping out and endorsing Michael Ignatieff.

Trudeau relied on LeBlanc to help stave off the threat of U.S. tariffs by preparing a border plan, and also elevated him to oversee Canada’s finances after Freeland resigned. However, LeBlanc could be seen by Trudeau detractors as being too close to the prime minister. The two have been friends for decades.

Anand, meanwhile, seemed to distance herself  from Trudeau when she first commented on Freeland’s resignation.

“I'll just say that Chrystia Freeland is a good friend, someone I worked with very, very closely as president of the Treasury Board and Minister of Transport,” she said on Dec. 16. “This news has hit me really hard.”

Anand lost the Treasury Board portfolio in the Dec. 20 cabinet shuffle but retained the transport portfolio she took on after Pablo Rodriguez left cabinet and caucus in the summer. She had previously been defence minister, from October 2021 until the July 2023 shuffle.

Champagne, meanwhile, has been in the role of industry minister for nearly four years, since January 2021. He has the longest record for a minister keeping the same portfolio.

The minister is usually talkative when speaking with reporters, but he kept it brief when asked about Freeland’s resignation and whether he has confidence in Trudeau.

“We'll make sure that we focus on what matters to Canadians,” Champagne said on Dec. 16.

Outsiders

Other than current and former ministers, Carney is most often mentioned as a potential successor to Trudeau who is not currently involved in federal politics.

Trudeau said this summer that he’s been trying to recruit Carney to the Liberals’ ranks “for years,” and in September appointed Carney as his special economic adviser within the Liberal Party.

Carney has not denied being interested in running for public office. “The opportunity may present itself,” he responded to Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith on the MP’s podcast when asked whether he will run for a House of Commons seat.

Carney is currently board chair of Brookfield Asset Management as well as the global investment firm’s head of transition investing. He also serves as the United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Change and Finance. He has previously served as central bank governor in both Canada and the UK.

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney speaks to reporters at the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., on Sept. 10, 2024. The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck

Trudeau, Freeland, and Carney share the same worldview on a host of issues.

Freeland said in September that Carney is her longtime personal friend from whom she has received advice in her role as finance minister. She made the remark after Carney was announced as special economic adviser to Trudeau.

Carney told Erskine-Smith he supports the Liberal Party because it has the “right combination of a social conscience and social priorities at its core.”

One former provincial leader could also be a contender in a Liberal leadership contest.

Former B.C. Premier Christy Clark told CTV News in October that she hasn’t closed the door to returning to politics and wants to be “part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party and of the country.”

On the same day Freeland resigned, Clark posted a photo of herself and John Manley, former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien’s deputy prime minister, saying, “Great catching up over coffee in Ottawa with my friend and former Deputy Prime Minister, John Manley.”

Clark served as B.C. premier from 2011 to 2017. She won re-election in May 2017 with a minority government, but resigned that summer as leader of the B.C. Liberal party as well as a member of the B.C. legislature. Her resignation came after her government was defeated in a confidence vote following an alliance between the B.C. NDP and Green Party.

If Trudeau chooses to step down, the Liberal caucus could elect an interim leader while the party runs a leadership contest. The prime minister could also ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament during the leadership race.

Time could be running out for the first option, however, given that the NDP recently said it will vote no confidence if Trudeau stays on, which would trigger a snap election. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said on Dec. 20 that his caucus will vote to bring down the Liberal government when Parliament reconvenes. The House of Commons is currently on break and will resume on Jan. 27.