ANALYSIS: Liberals Mostly United in Public as They Bank on Carney to Boost Prospects

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives to speak to reporters at the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., on Sept. 11, 2024. Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press

Besides a Liberal MP publicly saying her constituents want Justin Trudeau gone as leader, there was little to no frustration emerging from the Liberal caucus retreat despite a rough summer, with the party now looking to former central banker Mark Carney to help boost its political fortunes.

The expectation was that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would get an earful as he met with all of his MPs in Nanaimo, B.C., for the first time since the surprise byelection defeat in Toronto-St. Paul’s in late June.

If grievances were aired, it didn’t leak out of the caucus meeting, as MPs and ministers speaking publicly only mentioned support for the prime minister and party unity.

“What I heard so far is a lot of calls for unity,” Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said on Sept. 10 after being asked by reporters whether the meeting was tense.

The only crack in the wall came with Liberal MP and Deputy House Speaker Alexandra Mendès telling CBC News that her constituents have had enough of Trudeau.

Mendès won her Brossard–Saint–Lambert riding on Montreal’s south shore in landslides in the past three elections, but she expressed doubts about the next one, noting that frustrated voters chose the NDP in 2011 amid a country-wide “orange wave.”

All eyes are now on a byelection immediately across the Champlain Bridge linking Mendès’s riding to the riding of Lasalle–Émard–Verdun, where voters will head to the polls on Sept. 16.

The Liberals have been putting in a lot of energy on the ground in the run-up to the election. “All of us have contributed in one way or another” to make sure Liberal candidate Laura Palestini wins, Mendès said.

Lasalle–Émard–Verdun is considered a Liberal stronghold, with the riding having been held by former Justice Minister David Lametti since 2015 until he left politics in early 2024.

The Bloc Québécois and NDP are currently stronger contenders, and a Liberal loss would send a “very, very negative message” and result in “another reckoning,” Mendès said. The MP was referring to the loss of the Toronto–St. Paul’s stronghold to the Conservatives on June 24. The House of Commons seat had been in the hands of the Liberals since 1993.

While conveying her constituents’ message that Trudeau should resign, Mendès said her personal opinion is that he shouldn’t step down. She said, however, that without a leadership change she’s “not confident” the Liberals can win the next election.

“I’m hoping that something does happen that will change their perspective, but I’m not terribly confident,” she said. “There is this feeling about the prime minister that I really can’t pinpoint to a single issue, but it seems to be very prevalent.”

A separate byelection will take place in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona on Sept. 16, but there it’s a two-way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. The riding has been an NDP stronghold, and its seat became vacant after Daniel Blaikie left federal politics in February to join the Manitoba NDP government.

Carney as Adviser

Aside from Mendès’s comments, the public facade of the Liberal caucus was mostly uneventful save for the official addition of Mark Carney to the Liberal team.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England was appointed to serve as chair of Trudeau’s new party task force on economic growth. Carney’s duties include consulting with different stakeholders and reporting to Trudeau and the party’s platform committee to prepare for the next election.

Liberal ministers and MPs speaking at the retreat said Carney has been providing them with advice for some time. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said Carney is a longtime personal friend of hers, with whom she had discussed the economy long before entering politics.

“As I became minister, I continued to talk to Mark and get his advice and talk about ideas with him,” she said on the margins of the caucus retreat on Sept. 10.

Addressing media, Carney didn’t say what kind of policy proposals he would make to the Liberal Party but spoke of themes already a matter of focus for the Liberal government.

“Every major economy is accelerating their energy transition, and being low-carbon is becoming a key driver of competitiveness,” he said.

The Liberals’ focus on decarbonizing the economy and advancing climate change policies—with the imposition of a charge on fuel people use to heat their homes and drive their cars—has been harder to promote amid an affordability crunch.

The Conservatives have banked on the issue by framing their message around abolishing the carbon tax. The strategy has arguably paid off, with the latest Léger poll giving them 45 percent of voter intentions, 20 points ahead of the Liberals.

In a statement announcing Carney’s appointment, the Liberal Party said his “unique ideas and perspectives will play a vital role in shaping the next steps in our plan to continue to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class, and to urgently seize new opportunities for Canadian jobs and prosperity in a fast-changing world.”

‘Invest in Canadians’

Trudeau has said he’s been courting Carney to join federal politics for years. Carney has been seen as a potential future party leader and hasn’t denied being interested in the role, although he did not mention his future in politics at the retreat.

Getting Carney on board could be considered a positive development for Trudeau if he finally succeeds in convincing the former banker to play a political role, but it comes after multiple setbacks.

Aside from byelection woes, on Sept. 4 the NDP pulled out of the deal keeping the minority Liberals in power, and the next day the Liberal national campaign director tendered his resignation.

Trudeau brushed off concerns on the last day of the caucus retreat, saying he would keep the current trajectory of investing taxpayer dollars in government programs and private businesses.

“We need to continue to invest in Canadians, because confident countries invest in their workers, invest in their people, invest in their future,” he said. “That’s exactly what we’re going to keep doing.”

Asked by reporters whether he would consider the upcoming byelections to be a referendum on his leadership, Trudeau sidestepped the question, saying that “people are facing tough times right now, and that’s why we continue to step up to deliver for them.”