US Commits to 100 Percent Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Sales by 2040

A Daimler Urban eTruck electric truck during a press conference at the IAA Commercial Vehicles fair in Hanover, northern Germany on Sept. 21, 2016. Julian Stratenschulte/DPA/AFP via Getty Images

The United States on Nov. 17 committed to pushing to sell only zero-emission trucks and buses by 2040.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm signed a global memorandum of understanding on the matter on Nov. 17 at a global summit on climate issues.

Described by the Drive To Zero Campaign as the “world’s most ambitious agreement to address climate emissions from transport,” the memorandum puts signatories on a path to “100 percent new zero-emission medium and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sales by 2040 at the latest, with an interim goal of at least 30 percent new sales by 2030.”

“This global partnership will leverage the billions of dollars in clean transportation investments provided by President Biden’s Agenda to drive technological innovation, lower vehicle costs, and reduce transportation emissions,” Granholm said after signing the agreement.

Ireland, Ukraine, Croatia, Aruba, Belgium, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, Liechtenstein, and Lithuania joined the United States in signing the memo.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm on May 16, 2022. Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Global Transition

The Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, or Global MOU for short, is a non-legally binding agreement first introduced at COP26. It’s also considered a significant component of meeting net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

According to the Global MOU, signatories of the agreement recognize by their signing that MHDVs are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing up to 73 percent of NOx emissions according to CALSTART.

They also agree that MHDVs make up only 4 percent of on-road vehicles but are responsible for 36 percent of the fuel consumed and produce air pollutants, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and toxic air.

As such, the signatories agree to work with other countries in identifying a “viable pathway” towards 100 percent ZE-MHDVs.

Semi-trucks travel along I-94 near Lake Forest, Ill., on June 21, 2019. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Additionally, signatories agree to collaborate on “related infrastructure,” participate in the Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero program, and campaign for the Clean Energy Ministerial Electric Vehicle Initiative.

Further, to be eligible to sign on as a full partner, a country first must meet specific eligibility requirements.

They include setting “clear and well-defined targets” in the transition to net-zero; increasing regulations like purchase mandates, sales mandates, and vehicle emission standards to “solidify the trajectory of the market”; offering incentive programs to reduce the upfront cost of the vehicle; and establishing a “multi-year investment program” to build the necessary zero-emission vehicle infrastructure.

With its Nov. 17 signing, the United States joined 25 other countries as Global MOU partners. Austria, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Wales signed in 2021.

Electric Vehicles and Emissions

Signing onto the Global MOU isn’t the first step the U.S. government has undertaken to reduce emissions by transitioning from traditional fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric ones.

For example, on Aug. 25, the California Air Resources Board voted to completely ban the sale of new gas-powered cars in the state by 2035.

Following California’s law, several other states, including Oregon, Washington, New York, and others, also moved to ban gas-powered vehicle sales.

Additionally, in its April 2021 report, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a Washington-based trade association and lobby group representing domestic and international auto manufacturers, suggested “a sustained, holistic approach with a broad range of legislative and regulatory policies rooted in economic, social, environmental, and cultural realities” to increase electric car adoption.

To that policy and regulatory end, on Aug. 10, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published its 2023 proposed revision to vehicle standards.

Also in August, to reduce upfront electric vehicle (EV) costs, Democrats expanded EV tax credits in the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Although, since the IRA’s enaction, some experts have pointed out that the new credits exclude lower-priced EVs and could phase out entirely in 2023.

A Tesla Model X electric vehicle in this picture illustration taken in Moscow on July 23, 2020. Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters

Still, concerning emissions, a report on IOP Science titled “Environmental and economic impact of electric vehicle adoption in the U.S.” found that “Although BEV [Battery Electric Vehicle] adoption leads to decreases in tailpipe emissions, increased manufacturing activity as a result of productivity increases or subsidies can lead to growth in non-tailpipe emissions that cancels out some or all of the tailpipe emissions savings.”

And the IOP report isn’t the only publication raising concerns about EV emissions.

The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that the uptick in EV adoption and increased demand for lithium batteries presents a significant environmental challenge in mining emissions and increased mineral demand.

Plus, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported energy systems powered by “clean energy technologies” typically require more minerals to build than their fossil fuel-based counterparts.

“A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant,” the IEA reported.

“Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50 percent as the share of renewables in new investment has risen.”

Even under “sustainable development scenarios,” the IEA reported, lithium demand will increase by 42 percent by 2040 compared to 2020 levels, graphite will increase by 25 percent, cobalt (21 percent), nickel (19 percent), manganese (8 percent), and rare earth elements (7 percent).”