New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday issued a proclamation setting a date for a special election to fill the vacant seat left after Rep. George Santos’ (R-N.Y.) expulsion from Congress.
The special election, to be held on Feb. 13, 2024, will determine who will represent New York’s 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for the remainder of the term.
“As Governor, I have the solemn responsibility to call a special election to ensure the voters of Long Island and Queens once again have representation in Congress,” Ms. Hochul said in a statement. “Members of Congress provide critical constituent services, serve as a link to federal agencies, and advocate on behalf of the constituents who sent them to Washington. I look forward to working with the next representative for the 3rd Congressional District on the issues facing New Yorkers.”
Mr. Santos became the sixth member of the House ever to be expelled and the first Republican. He was removed from office in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 311-114-2, with 105 Republicans joining almost all Democrats in voting to expel him.
His expulsion comes amid ethics violations, and Mr. Santos currently faces 23 felony charges linked to alleged misconduct, encompassing accusations of wire fraud, identity theft, and violations of campaign finance laws. He has consistently defended himself, calling a congressional ethics report a “smear.” It also follows a year of controversy marked by revelations of false statements about various aspects of his personal, professional, and educational background.
The expulsion reduces the House GOP majority to eight seats, with 221 Republican members against 213 Democrat members. If Democrats were to secure the seat, it would further narrow that margin.
The Republicans’ majority hinges on them not losing more than three seats. As it is, should three Republican members break ranks and join Democrats to vote against a measure, it would pass 218-216.
The battle for the state’s 3rd Congressional District is expected to be tough, being classified as a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report immediately after Mr. Santos was expelled.
While Republicans have steadily gained ground in the Long Island area over the last three election cycles, the special election presents a chance for Democrats to gain ground in a district that favored President Joe Biden by approximately 8 points in the 2020 presidential election.
Voters there have traditionally leaned Republican, and since the 2020 election cycle, Democrats have lost ground. Fueling Republicans’ success are concerns about crime, immigration, housing affordability, and inflation, which skyrocketed under President Biden.
Adding to the complexity, in the 2016 election, Nassau County voted for Hillary Clinton, but Suffolk County voted for former President Donald Trump. The 2020 cycle saw President Biden prevail in both of these counties.
However, since then, Republicans have dominated, retaking Nassau in 2021, and winning Suffolk by a landslide in November.
In a major 2022 victory, Republicans won all four of the area’s congressional seats, with the largely unknown Mr. Santos securing his victory with an 8-point lead. This was the same margin President Biden carried two years earlier.
The special election is also expected to act as a local gauge of how important national issues such as crime and abortion are for voters in the district ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, providing Republicans and Democrats an opportunity to either increase their gains or reduce their decline, respectively.
Jim McLaughlin, a Trump pollster who polled for the Santos 2022 campaign, told CNN that voters in this area are turning to Republicans because they think Democrats are “doing a really bad job” on crime and housing affordability.
Instead of a primary, the local Republican and Democrat parties will pick a nominee to face off to serve the remainder of Mr. Santos’ term. Before his expulsion, Mr. Santos announced he would not seek reelection.
Potential Republican nominees to replace him include state Sen. Jack Martins and Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip.
As per Nassau County Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs, Democratic candidates may include state Sen. Anna Kaplan, Robert Zimmerman (who lost to Mr. Santos in 2022), and former Rep. Tom Suozzi, previously holding Mr. Santos’ seat before an unsuccessful gubernatorial run.
Both Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Kaplan are running for the seat in 2024.
