Voters casting their ballots in the midterm congressional election appear on track to smash midterm election early voting records from recent decades, according to the University of Florida Elections Project.
Early voter turnout in 29 states and the District of Columbia now exceeds the total early vote in the last midterm congressional elections in 2014. In three hotly contested states—Arizona, Nevada, and Texas—the early vote total this year exceeds the total vote count from early voting plus Election Day voting in 2014.
McDonald added that he was “pretty sure that all states will pass their 2014 number.”
Marquee Races
Among the high-turnout states are those with marquee races that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.In the Sunshine State, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is trying to beat back a challenge from incumbent Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican. In the race for governor, Democrat Andrew Gillum is facing former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Republican. In both races, the Democrats are thought to enjoy small leads in public-opinion polling.
Republican-affiliated voters have been voting at higher rates than Democratic-affiliated voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas. But in Nevada, Democratic-affiliated voters have been outpacing those on the GOP side, according to NBC.
In Arizona, Republican Martha McSally is neck-and-neck in polling with gaffe-prone Democrat Krysten Sinema in a battle for a U.S. Senate seat. In Nevada, Republican Sen. Dean Heller is tied in polling with Democratic challenger Jackie Rosen.
In the bitter Georgia governor’s contest, Republican Brian Kemp has a small polling edge over Democrat Stacey Abrams.
McDonald is also projecting sky-high turnout rates—for midterm elections—of above 50 percent in 13 states.
The academic predicts the following total turnout rates: Alaska (57.5 percent); Colorado (53.6 percent); Iowa (56.2 percent); Maine (60.6 percent); Michigan (53.2 percent); Minnesota (61.5 percent); Montana (56.6 percent); New Hampshire (51.8 percent); North Dakota (53.2 percent); Oregon (51.4 percent); South Dakota (53.1 percent); Vermont (54.2 percent); and Wisconsin (59.9 percent).
High Interest
In recent days, President Donald Trump has spoken at rallies for GOP candidates in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Ohio, and West Virginia. Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden have also been speaking at rallies for Democratic candidates across the country.While Republicans shattered their own record for voter contacts, Democrats enjoy a financial advantage and go into the final days of the campaign with more cash on hand than Republicans.
Conventional wisdom holds that Republicans are unlikely to hang onto the 435-seat House. Based on current standings, Democrats would need to pick up 23 seats to take control. Since World War II, the party occupying the White House has on average lost 26 House seats in midterm contests.
“So, in the House, we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning,“ Silver said Nov. 4. But he added that ”polls aren’t always right.”
On Election Day morning two years ago, FiveThirtyEight had given Democrat Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency.