US Homes for Sale Fall Nearly 40 Percent Amid Tight Market Conditions

High mortgage rates and low inventory plague the housing market with prospective buyers showing high degrees of purchase reluctancy

A for sale sign is posted in front of a home in San Anselmo, Calif., on March 22, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The number of homes for sale has declined from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with high mortgage rates discouraging prospective sellers from putting their properties on the market, said real estate brokerage Redfin.

There are now 39 percent fewer homes for sale on the market compared to five years ago in June 2018, according to a June 15 press release from Redfin. The brokerage firm blamed the inventory crunch on a “homebuilding slump” that has existed for more than a decade as well as mortgage rates shooting up after declining during the pandemic. Since 2021, mortgage rates have “more than doubled,” landing close to 7 percent this week, it said.

The low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021 had triggered a homebuying boom that ended up depleting the inventory. And when the rate started moving up at the beginning of 2022, many prospective home sellers backed off from the market, which failed to fill up the “inventory hole.”

The elevated rates in the current market are discouraging homeowners from selling their properties, Redfin argues.

In a June 14 press release, the real estate brokerage pointed out that 91.8 percent of U.S. homeowners with mortgages have interest rates below 6 percent. According to data from Freddie Mac, the weekly average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.69 percent for the week ending June 15.

“High mortgage rates are a double whammy because they’re discouraging both buyers and sellers—and they’re discouraging sellers so much that even the buyers who are out there are having trouble finding a place to buy,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr.

“The lock-in effect is unlikely to go away in the near future. Mortgage rates probably won’t drop below 6 percent before the end of the year, and most homeowners wouldn’t be motivated to sell unless rates dropped further. Some of them simply don’t want to take on a 6 percent-plus mortgage rate and some can’t afford to.”

Fed and Mortgage Rates

Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has pushed up its benchmark interest rate from 0.5 percent to a range of 5 to 5.25 percent. This has been a driving force for mortgage rates to surge over the past year.

During the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year. However, the central bank also suggested that two more rate hikes may be on schedule.

“The Fed’s indication that there are more rate hikes to come is not what homebuyers want to hear. It’s likely to keep mortgage rates elevated and may even push them up a bit,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao.

“People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that’s unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. If a home that’s in your price range and has everything on your wishlist hits the market, there’s no good reason to wait.”

Mortgage Loan Demand

While mortgage rates remain elevated, they have slightly cooled over recent weeks, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate coming down from 6.79 percent for the week ending May 31 to 6.69 percent for the week ending June 14.

“Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week in anticipation of the pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist in a June 15 news release.

During this period, mortgage loan applications have risen. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, jumped by 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 9 compared to a week earlier, according to a June 14 news release by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

“Mortgage rates declined for the second straight week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Mortgage applications were up over the week, but remained well below levels from a year ago.”

“Rates that are still more than a percentage point higher than a year ago, and low for-sale inventory continue to constrain home buying activity in many markets.”