US Sanctions Won’t Change Putin’s Decision Calculus, Experts Say

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his address to the nation at the Kremlin in Moscow on Feb. 21, 2022. Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

National security analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely remain undaunted by the sanctions package unveiled on Feb. 24 by U.S. President Joe Biden.

Atlantic Council senior fellow Emma Ashford said Biden’s sanctions package was what most observers expected: a series of restrictions on Russia’s ability to use the Western financial system, while leaving Russia’s energy exports mostly untouched.

Energy sanctions would have imposed a harsher punishment on Russia, but they also would have severely harmed European allies and others, according to Ashford.

“[Biden’s decision] was pretty much inevitable, because the level of Russia and Europe’s interdependence makes it impossible to sanction without causing major economic disruption,” Ashford said at a Feb. 24 event hosted by Defense Priorities.

Germany has canceled the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Russia in response to Putin’s Feb. 22 announcement of a “peacekeeping” mission in the breakaway Donbas republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, Europe still imports about 27 percent of its oil from Russia.

“You can’t just find 186 to 200 billion cubic meters of gas from some other source. Where will it come from?” asked Defense Priorities Director Rajan Menon.

The analysts also explained the rationale behind the Biden administration’s decision to allow Russia to keep using the SWIFT payment system, which underpins international financial transactions.

Biden’s decision on SWIFT immediately came under fire from critics.

“The Germans have vetoed the U.S. from using Swift sanctions. Biden deferred to them. America First vs consensus,” former Trump administration Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell wrote on Twitter.

Ashford said the decision on SWIFT was likely related to keeping Russia’s energy exports flowing.

“If you cut Russia off from SWIFT, then you have the questions of how the Europeans will pay for their gas from Russia,” she said. “We’re very limited in the things we can do that would change Russia’s calculus.”

But that isn’t to say that Putin’s apparent invasion plans will go unchallenged.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer said he expects Putin to face a Ukrainian insurgency.

“If they’re really intent on regime change, a large portion of the Russian army is going to have to stay in Kiev for some time to come,” he said. “There are a lot of Ukrainians out there that have spent the last couple of months collecting weapons and learning how to use them. And what may change things is when the Russians start experiencing the pain of occupying.”

Ashford and Menon expressed agreement.

“It’s not clear this is going to improve Russia’s security situation,” Ashford said.

Menon said: “This seems to me a wild gamble, and he’s [Putin] gone much further than I ever thought he’d go.”