A policy advisor for the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) cabinet-like State Council who called for Beijing to distance itself from Russia’s war in Ukraine was censored on the country’s internet, the latest voice criticizing the invasion to be silenced by the communist regime.
Hu Wei, vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Centre of the Counsellor’s Office of the State Council, wrote to warn the CCP’s decision-makers of what he predicts will be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s defeat and “a short time window” for China to pick sides between Russia and the West.
The article, which was posted to USCNPM’s WeChat account on March 12 and deleted two hours later, was censored across the Chinese web.
‘Irreversible Mistake’
In his article, Hu speculated that “the hope of Russia’s victory is slim” in the Ukraine war, which would lead to a post-war Russia with a political landscape void of great power status.“After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree,” the article reads, “Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs.”
Even if Russia succeeded in taking over Ukraine, Hu said, it would not be long until Russia could no longer cope with the international sanction effort and prospective rebellion forces within Ukraine.
“Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable,” he continued.
Short Window of Time
In his article, Hu envisioned a post-Ukraine-war world order with U.S. allies more united, an expanded NATO, and an America “regaining leadership status” in the West—all of which, he says, are signs that China should “cut ties” with Russia as soon as possible.Hu warned that China has “1-2 weeks” to choose between standing by Putin and siding with the “world’s mainstream stance.”
“At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the U.N. Security Council and the U.N. General Assembly votes.”
“However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world,” he said.
Pulled Two Ways
Hu’s recommendation came as top officials from both the United States and Russia demanded China stand on their respective sides.On Sunday, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in a TV interview that Russia’s partnership with China would “increase” as Western nations continue to ramp up sanctions on Russia.
“We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” he said.
“But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing.”
On the same day, U.S. officials warned China would face “severe consequences” if it helped Russia evade sanctions.
“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN.
‘New Iron Curtain’
Hu’s article also anticipates a “new iron curtain” dividing countries that are governed by liberal democratic values with authoritarian regimes.“The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy,” Hu said.
According to Brigadier General Robert Spalding, senior fellow at the D.C.-based Hudson Institute, the Chinese regime will not position itself against Putin “because [Xi Jinping] needs support to invade Taiwan.”
“This is where the world order fractures between authoritarianism and democracy,” he said on Twitter on Sunday.
“This is a long-term effort that really hinges on whether the free world recognizes that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other authoritarian regimes have to be confronted and have to be isolated economically, or this is going to consume the world,” he said.
