News Analysis
The Chinese regime is determined to dominate the world economically, politically, and militarily by 2049, posing a greater threat than the USSR ever did. As alliances form around the globe, some analysts believe that a new cold war is already here, accelerated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Defense paper on Chinese military buildup states, “Beijing seeks to reshape the international order to better align with its authoritarian system and national interests, as a vital component of its strategy to achieve the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’”
World domination in multiple spheres was never on the table during the Cold War with the USSR, which was confined to the military realm.
In economic terms, it appears that China is on pace to overtake the United States. China’s growth of 4.8 percent, while below the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) baseline target of 5 percent, is still considerably greater than U.S. growth. If it continues at this pace, Japanese researchers say that China’s economy may eclipse the United States’ by 2033.
Unlike the developing cold war with China, the Berlin Wall created a geographic delineation between East and West, containing the USSR behind the Iron Curtain. It also prevented communication and trade from reaching beyond the Soviet-controlled areas.
By contrast, the United States is China’s largest trading partner, with much of China’s growth fueled by the influx of foreign capital. Foreign direct investment in China expanded by over 14 percent in 2021, and the United States is one of the top investors. Through the export of technology and a targeted program of economic coercion and social media disinformation, the CCP is able to project its ideas and influence around the world.
The CCP’s foreign policy is targeted at building a “community of common destiny.” Since 2019, the CCP has increasingly used its military as part of its foreign policy. In 2020, there was a shift toward building alliances by providing COVID relief; when this failed, Beijing returned to a trade and military-led strategy. China’s economic expansion supports the CCP’s military ambitions by providing money for investment, necessary for the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as well as improving the country’s manufacturing and industrial base.
The CCP Forms Alliances
China has 14 land borders, including those with Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Burma (commonly known as Myanmar), Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Vietnam. Furthermore, China shares maritime borders with Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan.Beijing has had territorial disputes with most of these nations. The development of a regional pro-China block is not likely, as a result of the CCP’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea, incursions in the Senkaku Islands, and territorial violations of Bhutan, as well as skirmishes with India, where Chinese troops fought, and were killed, for the first time in about 40 years. Rather than making China more secure, each of these actions simply drove allies closer to the United States.
Western confidence in Chinese leader Xi Jinping is low, with many worrying that international organizations—such as the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, and Interpol—are coming under China’s control. In the United Nations, China has voted against intervention in genocide, including the genocide against Uyghur Muslims being committed by the CCP. At the WHO, the CCP recommended the means to contain COVID-19, while selling the world the personal protective equipment (PPE) and vaccines to implement the plan. Xi offered Chinese technology to help upgrade Interpol’s communications. He also claimed that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also known as “One Belt, One Road”), which will earn the CCP trillions in interest and construction contracts, is an international public good.
Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya (C) fist bumps Ambassador Zhang Jun, the permanent representative of China to the U.N., as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield (L) and Permanent Representative of Norway to the U.N. Mona Juul (2nd L) look on during an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on the Ukraine crisis, in New York, N.Y., on Feb. 21, 2022. Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
The CCP enjoys strong support. Consequently, Xi seems to be increasingly satisfied with obtaining allies through economic coercion rather than by winning friends through popular, soft power initiatives. Meanwhile, Russia remains the CCP’s most powerful, potential ally.
In the weeks leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia formed a pact, in what may be the beginnings of two competing camps, allies, and opponents in a new cold war. The two nations have signed a 30-year gas contract. In the U.N., they have also united in voting down proposed sanctions on North Korea for missile testing.
The CCP plans to forcibly annex Taiwan, a move that only 7 percent of Taiwanese approve of. A recent joint statement, issued by Putin and Xi, says Russia supports China in Taiwan, while the CCP supports Russia in Ukraine.
Stephen J. Hadley, former national security adviser under President George W. Bush, calls the statement “a manifesto for their global leadership.” According to the statement, the CCP also supports Russia to “oppose further enlargement of NATO.” It did not specifically state that China would fight for Russia or vice versa, although the two nations are unified in opposing American norms and influence in the world. The statement explicitly declares that Russia and the CCP would build a coalition of like-minded countries, which Western observers are calling an “axis of authoritarians.”
The second part of this series will explore which nations are being drawn into the axis of authoritarianism. Some nations are being sucked into the conflict unwittingly, simply by already being part of China’s or Russia’s sphere of influence.
Read part II here.
Read part III here.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
